Raymond James update on Oil Demand - June 29

[dan_s]

At the time of our last update on global oil demand on May 11, economic reopening was just starting to get underway, and the shape of the "new normal" - the subject of Raymond James' cross-industry report from last week - was very much a question mark. With a further seven weeks of data points, we are taking this opportunity to fine-tune our demand assumptions. The overall picture is modestly better than our model from mid-May, as the pace of reopening and thus demand recovery is tracking ahead of our original expectations. As such, we are raising our demand forecast for 2H20 and all of 2021.

However, it remains the case that a return to pre-crisis (2019) demand levels on a full-year basis is not in the cards until 2022, by which point our healthcare research team expects a vaccine that is both effective and widely available worldwide. From a more near-term perspective, recent COVID "case bump" in many parts of the world suggests the likelihood of heightened risks during the upcoming Northern Hemisphere winter, and this (admittedly uncertain) seasonal aspect will need to be watched closely in 4Q20 and 1Q21.

If you'd like to read the full report, send me an email and I will forward it to you: dmsteffens@comcast.net