EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - Dec 23

[dan_s]

Remember that EIA's weekly oil and gas reports are just their "best guesses", primarily based on formulas that are often proven to be way off when actual results are reported several month later. This is especially true during the holidays, when EIA employees are even less focused.

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending December 18, 2020

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.0 million barrels per day during the week ending December 18, 2020 which was 169,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 78.0% of their operable capacity last week. < As you can see below, demand for refined products has increased, so the refinery utilization rate needs to increase in Q1.
Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 8.8 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.6 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.6 million barrels per day last week, up by 140,000 barrels per day from the previous week. < Primary reason that crude oil inventories didn't go down as much as expected. My guess on why import are up is that tanker captains and their crews wanted to get home for the holidays.
Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.7 million barrels per day, 12.9% less than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 571,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 444,000 barrels per day.

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 499.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 11% above the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.1 million barrels last week and are about 4% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.3 million barrels last week and are about 10% above the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 2.3 million barrels last week and are about 4% above the five year average for this time of year. < High demand for propane is having a significant impact and causing NGL prices to rise.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 10.7 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 18.9 million barrels a day, down by 8.7% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product
supplied averaged 7.9 million barrels a day, down by 13.8% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 1.7% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was down 32.9% compared with the same four-week period last year.
-------------------------------------------
Demand for all refined products except for Jet Fuel are expected to rebound back to pre-pandemic levels within six months.

[dan_s]

Changes in crude oil inventories are a combination of U.S. production + imports - exports - draws from storage by refineries.

I posted a report here a few days ago that Seaborne oil is declining by approximately 2 million barrels per day. If you look at the NYMEX strip for oil you will see that it is flat, so there is no advantage for marketing companies to hold oil on tankers at sea. Also, in a market that expects crude prices to rise, it is wise for refiners to build up their crude inventories. China is buying all the oil they can now because they believe the post-pandemic demand for transportation fuels will rise and drive up crude oil prices. If the Covid-19 vaccines work and we don't get "Covid-21", that is going to happen.