Working gas in storage was 3,330 Bcf as of Friday, January 1, 2021, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 130 Bcf from the previous week. < Exactly what I forecast (pure luck). More important is the fact that this is the 5th week in a row that the draw from storage has been larger than the five year average.
Stocks were 138 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 201 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,129 Bcf.
At 3,330 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Over the last five weeks ending 1-1-2021 the delta to the 5-year average storage level has declined by 106 Bcf. < Despite mild December weather.
The next two week's reports are likely to be less than the 5-year average draws of 199 and 197 Bcf. From mid-Jan to the end of March I am predicting that storage moves below the 5-year average and that the gap will widen in Q2. Primary reasons are very high demand for U.S. LNG, falling U.S. gas production and rebound in industrial demand post-pandemic.
EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Jan 7
EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Jan 7
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group