Wood Mackenzie said in its latest short-term demand outlook that it expected demand for oil to rise by 6.3 million bpd from last year to 96.7 million bpd. This will still be about 3 million bpd below pre-pandemic levels, but as far as demand rebounds go, a rebound to two-thirds of lost demand is pretty decent.
Separately, the consultancy said this year might see the start of a new supercycle in commodities as the economy recovers and pent-up consumer demand is unleashed. This recovery will not be even, Wood Mackenzie’s chief analyst Simon Flowers noted, but in parts of the world, it would be considerable, despite the fact the pandemic will not disappear completely for a while yet.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration also sounded an optimistic note recently, again grounded in economic recovery and mass vaccinations. The EIA said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook that it expected global liquids consumption to rise by 5.6 million bpd this year and another 3.3 million bpd in 2022. The agency also noted it expected a return to more normal travel patterns by the middle of this year, which would be particularly bullish for oil.
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Oil Demand forecasts are being raised - Feb 2
Oil Demand forecasts are being raised - Feb 2
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group