Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending March 19, 2021
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.4 million barrels per day during the week ending March 19, 2021 which was 1.0 million barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 81.6% of their operable capacity last week. < Need to ramp up to 90% in April.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 8.6 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.6 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.6 million barrels per day last week, up by 0.3 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.7 million barrels per day, 9.5% less than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 939,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 664,000 barrels per day.
> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 502.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% above the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels last week and are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels last week and are about 1% above the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels last week and are about 13% below the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 4.8 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 18.8 million barrels a day, down by 10.7% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.5 million barrels a day, down by 8.7% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.0 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 1.4% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was down 35.4% compared with the same four-week period last year
MY TAKE: It is taking much longer than I expected for the Gulf Coast refineries to all recover from the weather related power outages in February. Refiners are going to have big task ahead of them to ramp up transportation fuel production in April and May to meet summer demand.
EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - March 24
EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - March 24
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - March 24
Energy Report: Oil Looks Exhausted
By Phil Flynn (Mar 24, 2021 10:49AM ET)
The sharp selloff in oil looks exhausted and the fact that German manufacturing data blew away expectations is one factor that eases the oil demand worries.
On top of that, a tanker blocking the Suez Canal will bottle up oil exports in one of the key global oil chokepoints. The Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are strategic routes for Persian Gulf oil and natural gas shipments to Europe and North America. These two routes combined accounted for about 9% of the world’s seaborne oil trade. A 400-meter long MV Ever Given container ship has gotten stuck in one of the narrowest parts of the Suez Canal, blocking the waterway—reports say that it could block the canal for days.
Lockdown fears in Europe can be put on the backburner. German factory activity rose to a record high in March and the services sector expanded after five successive months of contractions, surveys showed on Wednesday, suggesting Europe’s largest economy was shrugging off pandemic lockdowns according to Reuters. This signals a rebound in oil demand that mirrors the jump we have seen in Asia. A strong global GDP forecast because of stimulus should kick start oil demand even in the face of a slower reopening from COVID.
In the US, oil and gas demand look strong and if the API is any indicator of the EIA numbers, we should see strong US gasoline demand as vaccinations and pent-up demand should keep demand solid. We saw a sizable 3.728 million barrels drop in gasoline supply which seems to confirm data from Gas Buddy that gasoline demand is soaring.
Distillate supply rose slightly by 246.000 barrels. Crude supply did increase by 2.927 million barrels but that was eased a bit as we saw a 2.282 million barrels drop in Cushing, Oklahoma signaling an increase in refinery runs. This news should mean that the crude correction is over. The charts look at a possible extreme low for WTI of around $55.60/bbl if we have another failure, but that looks less likely as the selling looks exhausted.
US energy production will still struggle. This price break probably put the breaks on more projects just as some shale firms were starting to look to raise output. Still, the impact of the pandemic on oil production is being felt. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2020, down 935,000 b/d (8%) from the record annual average high of 12.2 million b/d in 2019. U.S. oil production peaked at 12.86 million b/d in November, 2019.
The 2020 decrease in production was the largest annual decline in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s records. The production decline resulted from reduced drilling activity related to low oil prices in 2020. In January 2020, U.S. crude oil production reached a peak of 12.8 million b/d. In March 2020, crude oil prices decreased because of the sudden drop in petroleum demand that resulted from the global response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
The declining prices led crude oil operators to shut in wells and limit the number of wells brought online, lowering the output for the major oil-producing regions. In May, U.S. crude oil production reached its lowest average monthly volume for the year at 10.0 million b/d.
By Phil Flynn (Mar 24, 2021 10:49AM ET)
The sharp selloff in oil looks exhausted and the fact that German manufacturing data blew away expectations is one factor that eases the oil demand worries.
On top of that, a tanker blocking the Suez Canal will bottle up oil exports in one of the key global oil chokepoints. The Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are strategic routes for Persian Gulf oil and natural gas shipments to Europe and North America. These two routes combined accounted for about 9% of the world’s seaborne oil trade. A 400-meter long MV Ever Given container ship has gotten stuck in one of the narrowest parts of the Suez Canal, blocking the waterway—reports say that it could block the canal for days.
Lockdown fears in Europe can be put on the backburner. German factory activity rose to a record high in March and the services sector expanded after five successive months of contractions, surveys showed on Wednesday, suggesting Europe’s largest economy was shrugging off pandemic lockdowns according to Reuters. This signals a rebound in oil demand that mirrors the jump we have seen in Asia. A strong global GDP forecast because of stimulus should kick start oil demand even in the face of a slower reopening from COVID.
In the US, oil and gas demand look strong and if the API is any indicator of the EIA numbers, we should see strong US gasoline demand as vaccinations and pent-up demand should keep demand solid. We saw a sizable 3.728 million barrels drop in gasoline supply which seems to confirm data from Gas Buddy that gasoline demand is soaring.
Distillate supply rose slightly by 246.000 barrels. Crude supply did increase by 2.927 million barrels but that was eased a bit as we saw a 2.282 million barrels drop in Cushing, Oklahoma signaling an increase in refinery runs. This news should mean that the crude correction is over. The charts look at a possible extreme low for WTI of around $55.60/bbl if we have another failure, but that looks less likely as the selling looks exhausted.
US energy production will still struggle. This price break probably put the breaks on more projects just as some shale firms were starting to look to raise output. Still, the impact of the pandemic on oil production is being felt. The EIA reported that U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2020, down 935,000 b/d (8%) from the record annual average high of 12.2 million b/d in 2019. U.S. oil production peaked at 12.86 million b/d in November, 2019.
The 2020 decrease in production was the largest annual decline in the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s records. The production decline resulted from reduced drilling activity related to low oil prices in 2020. In January 2020, U.S. crude oil production reached a peak of 12.8 million b/d. In March 2020, crude oil prices decreased because of the sudden drop in petroleum demand that resulted from the global response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.
The declining prices led crude oil operators to shut in wells and limit the number of wells brought online, lowering the output for the major oil-producing regions. In May, U.S. crude oil production reached its lowest average monthly volume for the year at 10.0 million b/d.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group