Laredo Petroleum (LPI) Update - May 10

[dan_s]

I will be updating the Laredo forecast/valuation model this morning. My goal was to finish the newsletter today, but now it may be pushed back a day. Just to much fresh info to keep up with. This deal is large enough to draw a lot of attention to LPI, which is definitely grossly undervalued. - Dan

Laredo Petroleum Announces Transformative Transactions
Acquisition of High-Margin, Oil-Weighted Howard County Leasehold and Divestiture of Gas-Weighted Reserves in Reagan/Glasscock Counties

TULSA, OK, May 09, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Laredo Petroleum, Inc. (NYSE: LPI) ("Laredo" or the "Company") today announced the signing of a purchase and sale agreement to acquire the assets of Sabalo Energy, LLC ("Sabalo"), a portfolio company of EnCap Investments L.P. ("EnCap"), and a non-operating partner for approximately $715 million, subject to customary closing price adjustments, comprised of $625 million in cash and approximately 2.5 million shares of Laredo common equity. Additionally, the Company announced the sale of 37.5% of its operated proved developed producing ("PDP") reserves in its legacy leasehold in Reagan and Glasscock counties ("Legacy") to an affiliate of Sixth Street Partners, LLC ("Sixth Street") for proceeds of $405 million and additional potential cash-flow based earn-out payments over the next six years. None of the PDP reserves are located in Howard or Western Glasscock counties. Both transactions are expected to close July 1, 2021. < Note that this will not impact Laredo's Q2 results, which I forecast to generate Adjusted Net Income of $41.7 million, $3.24 per share and Adjusted Operating Cash Flow from Operations of $99.2 million, $7.69 per share.

"The transformational impact for Laredo of the combined transactions is significant," stated Jason Pigott, President and Chief Executive Officer. "Upon closing, we will be positioned for sustainable Free Cash Flow generation and significant deleveraging, have more than 30,000 highly productive, contiguous net acres in Howard County and a near-term pathway to increasing our oil cut to more than 50% from the current 30%. The value derived from employing our efficient, low-cost operations in Howard County has already been established on our current leasehold and we expect to perform equally well on this new acreage. Additionally, we will be applying our ESG best practices to the development of this acreage, maintaining our prior commitments to reducing greenhouse gas intensity, methane emissions and eliminating routine flaring."

Financial Highlights:

Combined transactions expected to be accretive to long-term Free Cash Flow and Adjusted EBITDA per share

Transforms the cash generation profile of the Company, expected to drive total Free Cash Flow through FY-25 of >$700 million at current strip prices

Anticipated deleveraging beginning in second half of 2021, with Net Debt/TTM Adjusted EBITDA1 approaching 1.5x by YE-22 and 1.0x by YE-25

Enables mid-single digit annualized oil production growth at 50%-70% reinvestment rate through FY-25

Company oil cut expected to rise to 50% of total production by YE-21, increasing margins per barrel of oil equivalent ("BOE") < Although total Boepd production will be down due to the sale of 25,000 Boepd highlighted below, the higher oil cut in 2H 2021 should increase Laredo's revenues.

Acquisition Highlights:

~21,000 contiguous net acres (86% operated, 100% held by production) directly offsetting Laredo's existing Howard County leasehold

~120 operated oil-weighted locations (91% WI) and ~150 non-operated locations (12% WI)

83% of locations are capital efficient long laterals of 10,000 feet or greater

Currently producing ~14,500 BOE per day (83% oil, three stream) of low-decline production with an estimated next 12-month oil decline of 35%

PDP reserves of approximately 30 million BOE (73% oil, three stream)

Ideally situated for Laredo's efficient, low-cost operating structure

Development and spacing assumptions of 12 wells per drilling spacing unit

"This transaction complements Laredo’s existing asset base and strategy and accelerates the Company’s transformation to becoming a leading independent operator in the Midland Basin," commented Doug Swanson, Managing Partner of EnCap. "Laredo is well positioned to maximize value from the Sabalo assets and we view this transaction as compelling for Laredo shareholders, including EnCap, as part of this transaction." < EnCap's support is a BIG DEAL.

Divestiture Highlights:

Proceeds of $405 million from Sixth Street for the sale of 37.5% of Laredo's working interest in operated PDP reserves in gas-weighted Legacy assets, which does not include the Western Glasscock acreage acquired in late 2019

Divested reserves of approximately 94 million BOE (18% oil) with associated production of approximately 25,000 BOE per day (23% oil), at closing

Wellbore working interest only, Laredo retains all undeveloped locations

Acquisition Financing Details:

Funded through the partial sale of Legacy PDP reserves, borrowings on the Company's Senior Secured Credit Facility and the issuance of approximately 2.5 million common shares to EnCap

Senior Secured Credit Facility borrowing base reaffirmed at $725 million

About Laredo

Laredo Petroleum, Inc. is an independent energy company with headquarters in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Laredo's business strategy is focused on the acquisition, exploration and development of oil and natural gas properties, primarily in the Permian Basin of West Texas.