Oil & Gas Prices - May 17

[dan_s]

Late with this today because I was at the Mick Law Energy Conference in Dallas. I will be back at my desk early on Tuesday.
We have a webinar on Tuesday, May 18 at 10 AM.
For details and to register go to our website or send an email to Sabrina at energyprospectus@gmail.com.

Closing Prices:
> WTI prompt month (JUN 21) was up $0.90 on the day, to settle at $66.27/Bbl.
> NG prompt month (JUN 21) was up $0.148 on the day, to settle at $3.109/MMBtu.

(Bloomberg) -- Natural gas futures soared the most since February as U.S. weather forecasts turned much hotter, triggering speculation that a boiling summer will boost demand for the power-plant fuel and strain supplies.

For the first time this year, parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest could see temperatures reach 90 degrees Fahrenheit (32 Celsius) or higher starting this weekend, according to Commodity Weather Group.

The rally comes amid the tightest gas market in years. A deep freeze in the central U.S. this winter left stockpiles below normal for the first time since 2019, while exports of liquefied natural gas have climbed to a record, siphoning off domestic supplies. Though hedge funds’ bearish bets on the fuel rose over the past several weeks, the latest forecast likely prompted traders to cover those wagers, according to INTL FCStone Financial.

“The weather looks friendlier” to bulls, said Tom Saal, senior vice president of energy trading at INTL FCStone. Gas for June delivery settled up 5% at $3.109 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the biggest gain since Feb. 16 on a closing basis. Producers are injecting gas into underground inventories at a pace that trails the five-year average, signaling tighter supplies ahead of next winter. Stockpiles were 3.4% below normal as of May 7, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Gas suppliers rallied on higher prices for the commodity.
EQT Corp., the largest U.S. producer of the fuel, jumped 6.4% as of 2:34 p.m. Eastern Time. Antero Resources Corp. and CNX Resources Corp. both rose by 4%. < Today's price spike is also very bullish for Comstock Resources (CRK), Range Resources (RRC), Goodrich Petroleum (GDP), Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) and SilverBow Resources (SBOW).

[dan_s]

AEGIS Notes

The Trend for WTI remains UP. Buyers and Sellers are vying for Control at $64.75. Market-Driven hedges are available at current prices. A close below $60.50 will change Trend to DOWN and tell us more downside risk is present.

Natural gas is up 15.6c to $3.117/MMBtu.

The Trend is UP. Buyers are in Control above $2.95. Technicals are supportive. A change in Trend requires a Friday close below $2.88.

Natural gas prices are higher Monday morning on the back of much warmer weather
The June contract is up over 5% to $3.12, and Summer 2021 is up 4.7% to $3.16
Weather models showed a 23 cooling degree day (CDD) increase from Friday, according to Commodity Weather Group
The above-average warmth brings the first surge of 90s into the Mid-Atlantic over the next 4-10 days

The Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) receives another bout of legal challenges as environmentalist contend federal agencies are in violation of the Endangered Species Act (Platts)
MVP has been the target of ongoing legal and environmental challenges for multiple years
MVP recently pushed back the in-service target for the project to the summer of 2022, citing regulatory hurdles