Oil & Gas Prices - June 21

[dan_s]

Opening Prices
> WTI is down 4c to $71.60/Bbl, and Brent is down 9c to $73.42/Bbl. WTI is trading up to $72.09 at the time of this post.
The WTI Aug 21 contract is now the front month contract
> Natural gas is down 3.7c to $3.178/MMBtu.

AEGIS Notes
Crude Oil

Brent crude held near $73.50/Bbl Monday morning as nuclear talks between Iran and world powers continues to drag-on
The inconclusive talks decreased the prospects for a quick revival of Iranian crude exports
Diplomats adjourned the sixth round of meeting with vast differences remaining to mend the accord, the third time since talks began in April that negotiators have missed self-imposed deadlines to rejuvenate the agreement (Bloomberg)

Iran elected a new hardline president last week. President-elect Ebrahim Raisi will likely delay a return to the 2015 nuclear accord, according to consultants SVB Energy International LLC

World oil demand is well on its way to recovery
Highway traffic is back at, or even above, pre-pandemic levels in the U.S., China, and parts of Europe (Bloomberg)
The U.S. Transportation Security Administration data showed the number of passengers passing through security at U.S. airports surpassed 2 million a day for the first time since March 2020
European air traffic has risen- now just above 50% of pre-pandemic levels, data from Eurocontrol show
The remaining weak spot is long-haul flying, which is constrained by incoming restations in many parts of the world

Natural Gas

Prompt gas is down 3.7c, or nearly 17c from its high of $3.35 reached on June 14 < JUL21 is still the front month contract for ngas thru this week.
The gas-weighted degree day total for June fell from 271.1 to 263.3 over the weekend
Weather forecasts for the South and Southwest have contributed to the loss in degree days

A pickup in feed gas flows to LNG facilities has likely offset the weather-driven losses this morning
Feedgas flows to LNG facilities topped 10 Bc/d over the weekend, reaching their highest level since June 4 – Bloomberg

The prompt-month TTF-Henry Hub spread widened to an eight-year high of $7.26/MMBtu as Europe struggles to replenish gas inventories
Flows to Cameron LNG increased by 0.5 Bcf/d on Saturday, bringing the total to 1.78 Bcf/d, from 1.22 Bcf/d

MY TAKE: As long as LNG exports remain this high all summer, the chance of ngas in storage getting back to the 5-year average before the start of the next winter heating season are "slim and none".

[Fraser921]

The oily names are soaring today and the gassy names are on sale.

LPI up 9% , wow

[Fraser921]

The gassers are starting their move back up.

Funny, some the woke institutional funds that sold energy are missing out on a huge rally and losing their collective butts in hi tech and bit coin

[dan_s]

High oil prices is seen as bearish for natural gas because they fear an increase in drilling for oil will ramp up "associated gas" again. There is some logic in the fear, but it will take a lot more active drilling rigs than we have today to make it a serious risk.
Much higher exports this year and going to keep the gas market very tight.