Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) Update - Sept 21

[dan_s]

Pioneer Puts Delaware Acreage on Sale. US shale oil producer Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE:PXD) has reportedly put its oil and gas assets in the Delaware Basin on sale, seeking to cash in at least $2 billion from the sale as it increases its focus on its base acreage in the Permian’s Midland.

[SergioSays]

Seems like everyone is trying to dump their Delaware acreage during this energy supply panic.

[dan_s]

I wish I had something to "dump" for $2 Billion!

[dan_s]

With this note I have updated 14 of the Sweet 16 forecast/valuation models for more realistic natural gas and NGL prices. I will update OVV and PDCE tomorrow morning. You can find all of my Sweet 16 updated forecast/valuation models on the EPG website.
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PXD closed today at $147.95. My current valuation increases by $6 to $249 per share.

TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 15 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for PXD. The average price target among the analysts is $216.53." The price targets range from $181 to $259.

PXD is now on a pace to generate over $3.2 Billion of free cash flow this year and over $6 Billion in 2022 if they maintain their D&C budget at the current pace.

The 3rd quarter will be the first full quarter since PXD closed the acquisition of DoublePoint Energy on 5/4/2021. It should have them on a path to an exit rate of 720,000 Boepd and makes my 2022 production forecast of 740,000 Boepd look fairly conservative.

PXD does produce 155,000 to 160,000 bpd of unhedged NGLs and my model assumes a blended price of $35/bbl in Q4, which may be up to $10/bbl too low.