EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Sept 30

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,170 Bcf as of Friday, September 24, 2021, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 88 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 575 Bcf less than last year at this time and 213 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,383 Bcf.
At 3,170 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

The build was above my estimate of 75 Bcf, but we are in the "Shoulder Season" mid-Sept to mid-Oct when we see the largest inventory builds of the year.

There are now 7 weeks remaining in the refill season. My guestimate is that an addition 350 Bcf will be added to storage by mid-November, when draws from storage begin. That would put storage at 3,520 Bcf (compared to the 5-year average of 3,735 Bcf). That will be enough to make it through a mild winter. If you read the last page of my newsletter you now know that the winter forecast for the U.S. is that ~75% the U.S. is now forecast to have a colder than normal winter and the Great Lakes Region that consumes the most natural gas for space heating is expected to be significantly colder than normal.

Keep in mind that storage is now 575 Bcf below where it was a year ago and last year's surplus to the 5-year average was totally wiped out by February. Yes, Winter Storm Uri had a lot to do with the big draws a year ago, but each year the U.S. consumes more gas for power generation than it did the year before and this year industrial demand and LNG export demand is going to be a lot higher than it was last winter.