EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - Oct 6

[dan_s]

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending October 1, 2021

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.7 million barrels per day during the week ending October 1, 2021 which was 330,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 89.6% of their operable capacity last week. < Needs to move over 90% to rebuild distillates inventories.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.4 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.8 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.0 million barrels per day last week, up by 483,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.5 million barrels per day, 22.7% more than the same four-week period last year. < Energy Independence didn't last long.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 1.1 million barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 298,000 barrels per day.

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 420.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 3.3 million barrels last week and are about 1% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels last week and are about 11% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.6 million barrels last week and are about 20% below the five year average for this time of year. < We DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH PROPANE TO MAKE IT THROUGH A COLD WINTER. THIS IS A SERIOUS PROBLEM.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 0.8 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.7 million barrels a day, up by 16.4% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.2 million barrels a day, up by 6.4% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.1 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 15.9% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 64.1% compared with the same four week period last year.
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MY TAKE: Overall energy demand is already in Post-Pandemic World because so many supply chains have been drained. Demand for oil, natural gas, NGLs and even coal are going to remain high. Fuels used for space heating are tight in the U.S. and DANGEROUSLY LOW in both Asia and Europe. Natural gas shortages will cause more demand for home heating oil and as you can see above, our distillate fuel inventories are also very low.

[dan_s]

In the EIA detailed report that "guess" that U.S. oil production is back 11.3 million barrels per day, which compares to 11.5 million bpd the week before Hurricane Ida caused over 1.5 million bpd to be shut in.
EIA also estimates that refinery utilization is back to 89.6% of capacity, compared to 91.3% before Ida.

Days of Supply are below normal
27.6 days of crude oil
24.6 days of gasoline
27.6 days of jet fuel
31.2 days of distillates < This is misleading because when home heating oil demand goes up in November this will go way below 30 days.