EQT Corporation (EQT, $22.09, Buy) - 3Q21 Results Mixed
Though 2021 FCF Guide Notably Increased - Neal Dingmann
Antero Resources Corporation (AR, $20.03, Hold) - Mixed 3Q
as '21 Mostly Unchanged; Shareholder Returns Remain Largely
Debt Focused - Neal Dingmann
Range Resources Corporation (RRC, $26.09, Hold) - Riding
the Gas Wave - Range reiterated its prior FCF focused plan
consisting of decreased near-term activity of just one rig and one
frac crew while leaning on hopefully continually strong dry and
wet gas prices. While we believe the conservative strategy should
result in strong 4Q21 FCF of $200mm+ and equally as strong
1Q22 FCF of $225mm+, we remain relatively uncertain how the
plan will set the company up for future sustainable CF growth.
However, the moderate volume of 2022 hedges and minimal wet
gas hedges coupled with large inventory base provides optionality
going forward especially if gas prices hold. - Neal Dingmann
Matador Resources Company (MTDR, $45.55, Buy) - Set Up
for Even Bigger and Better 2022; Increase PT to $65 - Matador’s
operational & financial plans remain on track leading to what we
believe to be one of the best 2022 growth/FCF stories. While
there are a number of moving parts, we envision a 2022 w/
spending on par with the prior year while production/CF ramp
notably. While 3Q21, 4Q21 and early 2022 are somewhat setup
periods, we anticipate this qtr to be solid like the last despite
expected offset well shutins. Further, we anticipate a strong
shareholder return story next year as we have recently seen w/
the doubling of the quarterly dividend along w/potential for an
accretive acquisition(s). - Neal Dingmann
Comstock Resources (CRK, $10.70, Hold) - Likely Stable
3Q21 with Improving Path to Lower Leverage - Consistent
3Q21 D&C coupled with notably sequentially higher prices that
were not overly hedged like most other dry gas operators likely
resulted in the best quarterly FCF for CRK in ages. Prices not
seen in years continue this quarter with a step up in activity to
take advantage of the record levels. We will continue to watch
CRK’s forward hedging plans given ~50% of 2022 forecasted
production was hedged at the last update. If prices remain strong,
the company will have the option to continue to focus primarily
on debt reduction, initiate shareholder returns, and/or target
accretive deals. - Neal Dingmann
Comments from Truist Financial - Oct 28
Comments from Truist Financial - Oct 28
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group