Podcast and weekly EIA report on natural gas - Dec 18

[dan_s]

No podcast this weekend because nothing has changed since my live Oil & Gas Market Update webinar on Thursday, December 16. You can watch the replay here: https://energyprospectus.com/monthly-ep ... -12-16-21/

From EIA on December 16: Working gas in storage was 3,417 Bcf as of Friday, December 10, 2021, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 88 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 326 Bcf less than last year at this time and 64 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,481 Bcf.
At 3,417 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

The next draw from storage (for the week ending Dec 17) should be over 100 Bcf, but way below the 5-year average draw of 169 Bcf. This will put storage very close to the 5-year average. However, the cold air in the western U.S. is drifting eastward and the combined draws from storage for the two weeks ending December 31 should push storage more than 100 Bcf below the 5-year average at year-end.

Also, remember that wind speed does increase the amount of gas necessary for home heating. We had a lot of wind last week.

5-year average draws for the next six weeks:
Dec 17: 169 Bcf
Dec 24: 114 Bcf
Dec 31: 101 Bcf
Jan 07: 174 Bcf
Jan 14: 172 Bcf
Jan 21: 198 Bcf
Jan 28: 142 Bcf

On average, January is the month with the largest draws, but last year (thanks to Winter Storm Uri) we had weekly draws of 237 Bcf and 338 Bcf in February. If storage is below the 5-year average at year-end, we will be one "Polar Vortex" away from a big spike in natural gas prices in Q1 2022. Watch Joe Bastardi's "Saturday Summaries" at https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/