EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - Dec 22

[dan_s]

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending December 17, 2021

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.8 million barrels per day during the week ending December 17, 2021 which was 148,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. < The key driver of oil demand is refinery inputs since refiners are the direct consumers of crude oil. U.S. refiners have a lot of work to do in order to get refined product inventories back to normal.
Refineries operated at 89.6% of their operable capacity last week.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.9 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 4.9 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.2 million barrels per day last week, down by 277,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.4 million barrels per day, 12.7% more than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 688,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 203,000 barrels per day.

The KEY STAT below is how far inventories are below the 5-year average. Plus, as the FEAR of Omicron fades, we are going to consume a lot more oil-based refined products than we did five years ago.

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 4.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 423.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 5.5 million barrels last week and are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels last week and are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 0.8 million barrels last week and are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 7.0 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.9 million barrels a day, up by 11.0% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.1 million barrels a day, up by 14.7% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.1 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 7.5% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 25.6% compared with the same four week period last year
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Demand for crude oil in the US should remain high despite the FEAR of Omicron because US refined product inventories are so low. A lot of oil-based transportation fuels will be consumed over the next two weeks. After the New Year's weekend, demand for transportation fuels does decline until mid-March. Global demand for oil is "seasonal" and spikes by ~2 million bpd each spring.