EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - Feb 2

[dan_s]

Focus on the deficits to the 5-year averages. Distillate inventories are now DANGEROUSLY low.

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending January 28, 2022

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.2 million barrels per day during the week ending January 28, 2022 which was 248,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 86.7% of their operable capacity last week. < This MUST go over 90% soon to avoid refined product regional shortages.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 8.7 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.6 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.1 million barrels per day last week, increased by 0.8 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.5 million barrels per day, 9.6% more than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 433,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 250,000 barrels per day.

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 415.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 9% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.1 million barrels last week and are about 2% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.4 million barrels last week and are about 19% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories decreased by 4.3 million barrels last week and are about 12% below the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased last week by 5.8 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 21.6 million barrels a day, up by 11.8% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.2 million barrels a day, up by 5.2% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.4 million barrels a day more than the past four weeks, up by 11.3% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 29.0% compared with the same four-week period last year.
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MY TAKE: All fuels used for space heating (natural gas, home heating oil and propane) are all below the 5-year average and the deficits will grow this week thanks to Winter Storm Landon. The big deficit in diesel is a SERIOUS PROBLEM because we need a lot of diesel to solve our supply chain issues. We have idiots in Washington that do not understand how serious these fuel shortages are and they will get worse in Q2.

[SergioSays]

Dan--do you have a feel for what the basis has been doing on distillate rich crudes? I would presume the Canadian and GOM producers would be benefitting handily.

[dan_s]

Gulf of Mexico crude is selling for ~$2/bbl premium to WTI. I'm sure about Canadian heavy oils.