Reuter's take on Natural Gas - Apr 9

[dan_s]

U.S. gas storage emptied by exports to Europe and Asia: Kemp - Reuters News
08-Apr-2022 18:32:56

LONDON, April 8 (Reuters) - U.S. gas prices have climbed to their highest level in more than a decade as strong demand from overseas has emptied storage and left inventories well below average for the time of year despite a mild winter.

Front-month futures for gas delivered at Henry Hub in Louisiana have risen to $6.40 per million British thermal units, the highest in real terms since 2010.

Wholesale prices in the United States are still far below those prevailing in Northeast Asia ($33 per million British thermal units) and Northwest Europe ($34).

Full price convergence is prevented by the limited liquefaction capacity for exports from the United States and regasification capacity for imports into Asia and Europe.

But shortages in other regions and fears of an interruption of supplies from Russia are pulling U.S. prices higher via increased demand and prices for LNG.

U.S. LNG exports rose 13% in the three months from November to January compared with the same period a year earlier, while gas production was up by less than 5%.

As a result, LNG exports accounted for 12% of domestic dry gas production in January 2022, up from 8% in January 2020 and 3% in January 2018.

Exports are likely to have accelerated even further in February and March after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent gas prices surging in Europe.

U.S. prices are still largely isolated from the rest of the world, but growing LNG exports are gradually forging closer links with Europe and Asia.

DEPLETED STOCKS

US gas inventories ended the winter at just 1,382 billion cubic feet on April 1, the lowest for the time of year since 2019 and before that 2014.

Working stocks in underground storage were 316 billion cubic feet (19%) below the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average for 2015-2019.

Because of strong exports, inventories depleted more than usual despite high prices and winter heating demand that was 8% below the long-term average.

Reflecting the low level of stocks, futures prices have moved into a strong backwardation, with nearby prices rising to reduce consumption and exports and encourage more production.

The one-year calendar spread for Henry Hub futures has steepened into backwardation of more than $2 per million British thermal units, putting it in the 99th percentile for all trading days since 2007.

Higher prices have already begun to encourage more drilling, with the number of gas-focused rigs climbing to 138 last week, up from 106 at the end of last year.

The number of gas-focused rigs is rising at the fastest rate in five years, according to an analysis of rig counts published by oilfield services company Baker Hughes.

Increased drilling should keep output growing through the end of the year and into 2023, which will be needed as demand for LNG remains high as buyers in Europe and Asia scramble to replace gas from Russia.
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LNG exports are expected to remain high, making it VERY DIFFICULT TO REBUILD US STORAGE BEFORE NEXT WINTER.

[Fraser921]

To your points:

Propane inventory been below 35 m last 4 weeks

Production is about 2.4 m /day we send out 1.2 m a day, = net growth 1.2

We need to start winter at 80 m - 90 m so we need 50 m in next 26 weeks, net 2.0 m a week 1.2 vs 2.0 a bit of a disconnect!

BUY AR NOW

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/propane.php

https://www.anteroresources.com/ CHECK OUT SLIDE DECK

[dan_s]

NGL prices should stay high all year.

It is more important than ever to know the production mix of the companies you own. I show their production mix at the bottom of each forecast model.

[dan_s]

From Phil Flynn:

The run up in U.S. natural gas still looks cheap in the global market where Europe and mainly Germany are paying the prices for their short-sighted and dangerous green energy policies. They are looking to the U.S. to fill their future natural gas needs. Prices have been trending higher since Biden vowed that the U.S. and other nations will increase liquified natural gas exports to Europe by 15 billion cubic meters this year and that even larger shipments would be delivered in the future.

This comes as U.S. gas supplies, where production has been slowed by the Biden administration’s anti-fossil fuel policies, have left the U.S. natural gas inventories 17% below their five-year average.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA)is pegging stocks at 1.382 trillion cubic feet for the week ended April 1. In Europe, stocks are around 20% below their five-year average according to Myra Picache at MarketWatch. “In Europe storage facilities are currently only 25% to 27% filled according to Bloomberg and the demand to refill storage will be high, keeping prices elevated.

This reflects the importance of natural gas in the global energy transition. It also points out the folly of the green energy zealots that made the cleanest burning fossil fuel into a pariah and closed major European production fields leaving Europe short of supply raising, food costs and have helped take food out of the mouths of the poor. Surging natural gas prices have caused sharp rises in fertilizer costs in a world where the food supply is already tight.

The natural gas market is in a parabolic mode. There could be a correction at any time but make no mistakes about it, this is a forerunner of higher natural gas prices in the future. We were recommending months ago to put on hedges for the summer months. Hopefully you did that. If you did not, you can call me today and we can talk about different strategies.