100% of NOG's production comes from assets that are operated by other companies. Therefore, it is more difficult to forecast future expenditures and production. That said, during a period of rising oil & gas prices, it is like that NOG will see an uptick in drilling activity on its properties.
NOG was trading at $28.17 at the time of this post.
TipRanks: Since March 25th, four highly respected energy sector analysts have updated their price targets for NOG to $36, $37, $40 and $45 (Raymond James, which is using a commodity price deck closest to my price deck).
I have updated my forecast for the increase in natural gas and NGL prices. My valuation increases by $1 to $51/share.
My valuation multiple is only 4.5 X annualized operating cash flow per share.
NOG closed three large acquisitions in 2021 with Bakken Acquistion from Comstock closing in November. If Q1 results and NOG's guidance confirm my forecast assumptions, a higher valuation multiple will be justified.
Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) Update - April 19
Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) Update - April 19
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group