Oil & Gas Prices - May 12

[dan_s]

Opening Prices
> WTI is down $1.53 to $104.18/bbl, and Brent is down $1.83 to $105.68/bbl. < Back to $105.70 at the time of this post.
> Natural gas is down -23.1c to $7.409/MMBtu. < At $7.63 at the time of this post.

AEGIS Notes
Oil

The IEA cut the global oil supply forecast by 710 MBbl/d to 98.1 MMBbl/d in its monthly report for May
> Russian supply was down 1 MMBbl/d in April and is forecasted to go down to ~3 MMBbl/d in the second half of the year
> OPEC's April oil output increased by 0.05 MMBbl/d as Saudi Arabia and Iraq increased their flows, offsetting Libya's losses
> World oil consumption is expected to climb by 3.6 MMBbl/d from an April low through August as Chinese restrictions ease, summer driving picks up, and jet fuel continues to rebound

EIA reported a build of 8.5 MMBbl of commercial crude inventories for the week ending May 6
> Distillate inventories fell to 104 MMBbl, the lowest level since May 2005, according to EIA, as US refining capacity and Russian imports plummeted
> Stockpiles of gasoline fell 3.6 MMBbl to 225 MMBbl ahead of the peak summer driving season
> Yesterday, the average retail price of gasoline and diesel both hit fresh highs of $4.404/gal and $5.553/gal, respectively

Natural Gas

This morning’s pipeline nominations show lower-48 dry gas production is down by around 0.6 Bcf/d at 95.0 Bcf/d
> Production has weakened significantly over the last several days, with pipeline maintenance in the South Central region bearing some of the blame
> Feedgas demand is down at around 11.5 Bcf/d. Cameron LNG has a train down for maintenance that should last until around May 20, and now Corpus Christi LNG volumes have been reduced

The EIA is expected to report an injection of 74 Bcf Bcf for the week ending May 6 (Platts)
> Responses to the survey ranged from 61 Bcf to 82 Bcf
> US storage levels would climb to 1.641 Tcf, expanding the distance to the five-year average to 314 Bcf from 305 Bcf
> It would contrast the five-year average injection of 82 Bcf, and the 70 Bcf addition reported during the corresponding week in 2021

[dan_s]

Closing Prices:
> Prompt-Month WTI (Jun 22) was up $0.42 on the day, to settle at $106.13
> Prompt-Month Henry Hub (Jun 22) was up $0.099 on the day, to settle at $7.739

Nice reversal mid-day