Oil & Gas Prices - June 10

[dan_s]

Opening Prices:
> WTI is up $0.44 to $121.95/bbl, and Brent is up $0.37 to $123.44/bbl.
> Natural gas is down -11.4c to $8.849/MMBtu.

AEGIS Notes
Oil: First Look - Oil set for a seventh straight weekly gain

Shanghai reinstated temporary lockdowns this weekend to conduct mass testing in various districts of the city
> It encompasses nearly all the city's 25 million residents, and lockdowns may be extended if additional cases are discovered
> Analysts believe that if lockdowns persist, the road to oil demand recovery could be bumpy

Oil supply disruptions in Libya are becoming more severe as the country's political situation worsens
> Protesters blockaded the 200 MBbl/d Sarir field and the 250 MBbl/d Es Sider port, shutting down more than half of Libya's oil production
> According to S&P Global's Platts OPEC+ survey, the country's output plummeted to a 16-month low of 770 MBbl/d in May, much below its current capacity of 1.2 MMBbl/d

Natural Gas

Natural gas futures are down by 11.4c this morning as weather forecasts tilt slightly bearish
Futures have continued to sell-off, but the strips are still trading higher week-over-week
Summer 22: +31c, at $8.809
Winter 22/23: +45c, at $8.703
Summer 23: +57c, at $5.993
Winter 23/24: +53c, at $6.168

The 1-15 day range average pop-weighted average temp decreased by 4.8 °F

EIA reported a storage build of 97 Bcf for the week ending 6/03/2022. This was equal to the average estimate of 97 Bcf.
Yesterday's stat fell within the expected range, which was 105 Bcf on the more bearish end, and 85 Bcf on the more bullish end

Cheniere Energy Inc will sell liquefied natural gas to Equinor
> The deal would require that Cheniere Energy supply 0.25 Bcf/d of LNG to Norway's Equinor for a period of fifteen years
> The purchase price is indexed to the Henry Hub benchmark plus a fixed liquefaction charge, and first deliveries are expected to start in 2H2026
> Half of the annual volume that Cheniere has agreed to supply required the company to make a final investment decision (FID) to proceed with its expansion project at Corpus Christi LNG

[dan_s]

More than half — 53% — of voters say they believe the Biden administration is intentionally letting gasoline prices increase to make Americans use less fossil fuels, according to a new poll by Convention of States Action and The Trafalgar Group.

Just over 39.6% say they don’t believe it.

They poll asked 1,091 general election voters if they believe the administration is intentionally letting gas prices rise to make Americans use less fossil fuels:

77.3% of Republicans say they believe it, compared to 12.9% who say they don't. Just under 10% were uncertain.
24.8% of Democrats say they believe it, while 68.7% say they don't. Another 6.5% were uncertain.
56.5% of independents say they believe it, compared to 37.6% who say the don't. Just under 6% were uncertain.
"Surging gas prices are creating immense hardships both for everyday Americans and for our economy at large," said Mark Meckler, president of Convention of States Action. "The hard-to-fathom, surreal idea that Washington, D.C., is working against the American people explains why [President Joe] Biden’s poll numbers are in the tank."

The poll was conducted May 25-29. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.

[dan_s]

Closing Prices:
> Prompt-Month WTI (Jul 22) was down $-0.84 on the day, to settle at $120.67. < Seven weekly gains in a row. I think we see WTI over $135/bbl in Q3.
> Prompt-Month Henry Hub (Jul 22) was down $-0.113 on the day, to settle at $8.850 < Three week shut down of the Freeport LNG export facility is a concern, but it is a short-term problem. Europe is in deep trouble. Bid for LNG cargos increased to $26.56 in Europe yesterday, up $1.52/MMBtu.