EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - June 23

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 2,169 Bcf as of Friday, June 17, 2022, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 74 Bcf from the previous week. < 12 Bcf below the 5-year average of 86 Bcf for this week.
Stocks were 305 Bcf less than last year at this time and 331 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,500 Bcf.
At 2,169 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

In the last 13 weeks (1 Quarter of a year) the injections to storage have been 53 Bcf below the 5-year average.

There are now 21 weeks left in the refill season before draws from storage begin for space heating. Even with the Freeport LNG facility offline, the chance of getting storage back to the 5-year average by mid-November is ZERO.

The 5-year average storage level at the beginning of winter is 3,735 Bcf. With so many coal fired power plants shut down, we consume more gas each winter for power generation.

If storage is still 300 Bcf below the 5-year average when the Freeport facility comes back online, the stage will be set for a surge in natural gas prices.

Keep an eye on the Tropics. A Gulf of Mexico hurricane that disrupts supply or (heaven forbid) takes down refining capacity will ramp up the energy crisis.

[dan_s]

5 Year average storage builds for the next six weeks:

Wk ending
June 24: 68 Bcf
July 1: 61 Bcf
July 8: 54 Bcf
July 15: 39 Bcf
July 22: 34 Bcf
July 29: 31 Bcf

July is the month with the smallest builds each year. Last year during this six week period we had a build of 76 Bcf and builds of 13 Bcf and 16 Bcf.

The average builds in August start increasing.

If storage is still 300 Bcf below the 5-year average in September, the Bidding War between utilities for physical supply will be intense.