Big spread between Brent and WTI - July27

[dan_s]

I ask Matt Marshall at AEGIS what might be causing the big spread (over $9/bbl today) between Brent and WTI.
Here is his response:

Possible reasons, in order of likelihood/contribution:

Brent risk premium. The spread widened with the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Tanker rates. Shipping cost matches the WTI-Brent evolution almost perfectly. WTI (and related, such as Houston) must discount to open up shipping economics.
SPR concentration. The US has been the most active releaser of SPR barrels, and that is supply closer to WTI.
Dollar strength. I’m not sure of the economic rationale behind this, but the correlation is very good since mid-May
Exports were reduced. US exports peaked in May, but dropped a small amount in June-July. The number announced by EIA today was a record high, though.