EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - Aug 17

[dan_s]

This should stop the oil price decline.

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending August 12, 2022

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.4 million barrels per day during the week ending August 12, 2022 which was 158,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 93.5% of their operable capacity last week.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 10.0 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.2 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.1 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 39,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.5 million barrels per day, 0.5% more than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 714,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 164,000 barrels per day.

Focus on how low inventories are compared to the 5-year average. U.S. and OECD inventories on "Days of Consumption" are much lower than where they should be this time of year. Distillates (diesel and heating oil) are DANGEROUSLY LOW. In the real world, OECD petroleum inventories are the PRIMARY DRIVER of oil prices.

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 7.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 425.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4.6 million barrels last week and are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year. Both Finished gasoline and blending components inventories decreased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.8 million barrels last week and are about 23% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.3 million barrels last week and are about 8% below the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 9.2 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.2 million barrels a day, down by 3.2% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.1 million barrels a day, down by 4.2% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 4.7% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 5.6% compared with the same four-week period last year.
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MY TAKE:
> EIA clearly made "a mistake" in reporting a big decline in gasoline demand a few weeks ago. Just maybe, Team Biden's agenda is having an impact of reports coming from our Department of Energy. Now that the "Inflation Reduction Act" (a bold face lie) has passed, the EIA can be more honest in their reports.
> Combined with the continuing draws from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), U.S. total crude oil inventories actually declined 12-14 million barrels last week. I wonder why EIA's weekly report doesn't show the total decline? Take a guess.
> Space heating inventories (distillates, natural gas and propane) are too low to make it through a colder than normal winter. The good news is that we are in much better shape than Germany.
> The FEAR of a recession is the only thing I see keeping a lid on oil prices. IMO only a major recession will have an impact on oil demand.