I took Dan's model for CRK and changed the o/s shares and made adjustments to 2023 Pref. dividends.
I left all other assumptions the same to isolate the impact of more shares outstanding.
The model falls from $ 44 to $37.26 for impact of new O/s shares-- a negative 6.75 impact!
Taking NG down 1.00 in 2023 lowers it to 32.59
Cutting it to 4 x CF is 26.07
Cutting it to 3 x is 19.55
comstock model impact- What ifs
Re: comstock model impact- What ifs
Getting rid of preferred stock is a GOOD thing because pfd stock is like debt, it has to be paid off first if the company is liquidated. Converting pfd stock to common stock is not dilutive. pfd stock is still "stock", but with a higher pecking order.
With no more pfd stock dividends, there is more FCF available for paying dividends on the common stock or funding stock buybacks.
With no more pfd stock dividends, there is more FCF available for paying dividends on the common stock or funding stock buybacks.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: comstock model impact- What ifs
I reviewed the 10-k and latest 10 q this morning.
Jerry Jones Prf paid 10 % on 175 m 17,5m annually
He got the 4th quarterly Pref payment of 4,375 in November.
Then he converts the Pref >effective November 30, 2022, all outstanding shares of the Company's Series B Convertible Preferred Stock have been converted into 43,750,000 shares of common stock.
The 50 cents dividend is worth 43,750 * 50 cents = 21,875 m per year vs the old 17.5 m annually
The dividend is payable to holders on 12/1 > surprise surprise which is another 5,468 K EXTRA he gets for holding one day!
So, he had his cake and ate it too. Damn Cowbowys!
It's little things like this that make me not trust these guys!
Jerry Jones Prf paid 10 % on 175 m 17,5m annually
He got the 4th quarterly Pref payment of 4,375 in November.
Then he converts the Pref >effective November 30, 2022, all outstanding shares of the Company's Series B Convertible Preferred Stock have been converted into 43,750,000 shares of common stock.
The 50 cents dividend is worth 43,750 * 50 cents = 21,875 m per year vs the old 17.5 m annually
The dividend is payable to holders on 12/1 > surprise surprise which is another 5,468 K EXTRA he gets for holding one day!
So, he had his cake and ate it too. Damn Cowbowys!
It's little things like this that make me not trust these guys!
Re: comstock model impact- What ifs
It is hard to complain when someone plays by the rules. Were we in his place, or Buffet's, et al, we would do the same thing. It is irksome, but it does not make them untrustworthy.
Re: comstock model impact- What ifs
Why didn’t company buy the pref back when the stock was 5 or at least protect us from the huge dilution by buying back shares when the price was low
He makes 400 per cent and share holders have gotten nothing for last 4 years.
Now ng is getting crushed, down a buck in 2 days
Opened 50 cents lower in pre market due to warm forecast.
He makes 400 per cent and share holders have gotten nothing for last 4 years.
Now ng is getting crushed, down a buck in 2 days
Opened 50 cents lower in pre market due to warm forecast.
Re: comstock model impact- What ifs
Play by rules?? I suppose. But it shows who they care about and who they don’t
Capturing 5.5 m for holding for one day?
The name has been down 20 per cent in one month and will be down more tomorrow
The valuation should be 44 and it’s wallowing at a fraction due to insider favoritism
I’m throwing the challenge flag. Deflate gate
The problem is they make the rules up to serve themselves and minority holders get screwed.
It didn't suit the insiders to take out the expensive pref. when the stock was $ 5. And all we hear is they don't have a debt issue unused credit line, etc
The stock is headed back to single digits , then Jones will offer a Hamm like premium of a buck to take over the rest.
Down another 6 % to 15.50!
Capturing 5.5 m for holding for one day?
The name has been down 20 per cent in one month and will be down more tomorrow
The valuation should be 44 and it’s wallowing at a fraction due to insider favoritism
I’m throwing the challenge flag. Deflate gate
The problem is they make the rules up to serve themselves and minority holders get screwed.
It didn't suit the insiders to take out the expensive pref. when the stock was $ 5. And all we hear is they don't have a debt issue unused credit line, etc
The stock is headed back to single digits , then Jones will offer a Hamm like premium of a buck to take over the rest.
Down another 6 % to 15.50!