Oil & Gas Prices - Jan 9

[dan_s]

Susan & I will be leaving on vacation at 10AM CT today and returning Saturday morning. I will be able to check the Forum a few times this week.
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Opening Prices:
> WTI is up $2.54 to $76.31/bbl, and Brent is up $2.49 to $81.06/bbl.
> Natural gas is up 13.0c to $3.84/MMBtu.

AEGIS Notes
Oil

Oil reverses some of last week’s losses amid ongoing optimism of a recovery in Chinese demand
Feb ’23 WTI gains over $2 this morning to trade above $76/Bbl
China announced a slew of economic stimulus measures and reopened borders as lunar new year travel begins despite a surge in Covid cases
China has reduced mortgage rates and down payment requirements for first-time homebuyers in an effort to revive the country's faltering real estate market, said government officials last Thursday
Additionally, Chinese state media reported on Thursday that the southern manufacturing hub of Guangzhou had 1,722 projects totaling $945 billion planned (South China Morning Post, Mining.com)
Furthermore, China granted refiners a second batch of crude import permits for 2023, raising the total to 132 million tons of crude imports as compared to 109 million tons last year, indicating the nation might be looking to boost consumption (BBG)

The Biden administration rejected the first batch of bids for the replenishment of the SPR after deciding that the offers it received were either too expensive or did not meet the required specifications (BBG)
The DOE had announced its intention to begin replenishing the SPR in December, starting with a 3 MMBbl purchase in February following the 180 MMBbl release to control petroleum prices in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine
According to sources with knowledge of the situation, the DOE will postpone the purchase that was initially scheduled for next month but will stick to a program that accepts fixed-price offers

Natural Gas <You should all watch Joe Bastardi's Saturday Summary. He is forecasting a SIGNIFICANT CHANGE in the U.S. weather pattern around January 20 with a dip in the jet stream that will bring very cold temperatures into the eastern U.S. in February.

Natural gas prices are up 4% to $3.87 in the prompt-month
Weather forecasts are mixed with the Northeast region’s forecast warming by 15 °F in the 1-5 day period, while the Midwest regions forecast cooled by 6.5 °F over the same period
Temperatures are expected to remain mostly above normal throughout January, leading to reduced demand for natural gas for space heating

LNG demand in 2023 may be softer than expected (BBG)
While China’s reopening of its economy should lead to a boost in natural gas imports, the reopening has not been smooth, with Covid infections remaining high in some parts of the country
An increase in Russian pipeline imports to China will likely lead to a decrease in spot LNG purchases, which are generally more expensive
Less demand than expected from China should help Europe replace Russian pipeline imports
Bloomberg estimates that Northwest Europe, Italy, and Austria will utilize two-thirds of the global flexible LNG supply

US Consumer Product Safety Commission considers ban on natural gas stoves (BBG)
A federal safety agency is beginning to consider a ban on indoor gas stoves based on concerns about indoor air pollutants
That concern comes from new research showing a link between childhood asthma and indoor natural gas stoves, which are found in about 40% of US homes
An agency representative said, “Any option is on the table, products that can’t be made safe can be banned”
Lawmakers have suggested mandating warning labels, range hoods, or performance standards in place of a ban

[dan_s]

Find Raymond James update on natural gas at the link below

Energy Stat: At Midpoint of Winter, Europe's Gas Situation Is Solid; the Harder Part Will Be the Upcoming Summer

READ MORE> https://raymondjames.bluematrix.com/lin ... 61c0b090c4

[ChuckGeb]

US Consumer Product Safety Commission considers ban on natural gas stoves (BBG)
A federal safety agency is beginning to consider a ban on indoor gas stoves based on concerns about indoor air pollutants
That concern comes from new research showing a link between childhood asthma and indoor natural gas stoves, which are found in about 40% of US homes
An agency representative said, “Any option is on the table, products that can’t be made safe can be banned”
Lawmakers have suggested mandating warning labels, range hoods, or performance standards in place of a ban

Defund the US Consumer Product Safety Commission! These guys and gals are nuts.