Natural Gas Prices are set by regional supply/demand

[dan_s]

U.S. natural-gas inventories swell, but California's shortage persists. WSJ.
Mild weather and strong production have pushed U.S. natural-gas inventories to above normal for this time of year, all but eliminating the risk of price spikes and shortages of the heating and power-generation fuel this winter. The volume of gas in storage ended last week 1.2% above the five-year average, up from more than 10% below normal this summer, when prices surged to shale-era highs, Energy Information Administration data show. Supplies have swelled despite a big deficit on the West Coast, where inventories are 31% below normal. Low supplies have been especially problematic in California, where on-the-spot gas has been more than six times as expensive as it is at Louisiana's Henry Hub pipeline junction, where the national benchmark price is set.

Mild winter, strong storage inventories drag down global natural gas price outlook. NGI.
The sinking cost of natural gas and LNG prices across the world in recent weeks has influenced banks and energy analysts to lower their price forecasts for the year as global storage inventories and demand hold steady. Expectations have especially shifted for the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, which has dropped around 80% since reaching a record high in August. A continued influx of liquefied natural gas cargoes and mild weather have kept Europe’s natural gas storage at around 80% full, well above the five-year average. Since the beginning of the year, the TTF has slumped below $20/MMBtu, hitting its lowest point since 2021. The prompt price for March again closed just above $19 on Thursday. TTF has also been closely followed by Japan-Korea Marker futures, which have been hovering just above the $20/MMBtu mark as price-sensitive South Asian buyers tentatively venture back into the market. Spot JKM prices have dipped below $20. < Global natural gas prices have remained at or above the energy equivalent of oil (1/6th) for many years.
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Demand for U.S. LNG will remain high for decades since it is the "clean fossil fuel". As our export capacity grows (surging from ~12 Bcf per day currently (with Freeport still offline) to over 22 Bcf per day in 2027) we will need more gas in storage at the beginning of each winter and U.S. natural gas prices will be more influenced by the global gas market.