Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE): An updated Net Income and Cash Flow Forecast has been posted under the Sweet 16 Tab. Members can log in and click on the GTE logo to see it.
Yesterday, GTE announced a significant discovery well in Argentina that will be on production in April. My Fair Value estimate for GTE has been increased.
GTE: Updated Forecast
GTE: Updated Forecast
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
-
bearcatbob
Re: GTE: Updated Forecast
To: Dennis Roth who wrote (165733) 3/31/2012 11:05:38 AM
From: Dennis Roth Read Replies (1) of 166597
Argentina decides to control oil firm YPF: report
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/ ... 8520120331
BUENOS AIRES | Sat Mar 31, 2012 8:15am EDT
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentina's government has made the decision to take control of leading energy company YPF and is discussing whether to renationalize it or intervene in its administration, a newspaper reported on Saturday.
YPF (YPFD.BA), which is controlled by Spain's Repsol (REP.MC), is under intense pressure from the center-left government to boost output to reduce surging fuel imports that are eroding the country's trade surplus.
Pagina 12 newspaper, which is seen as reflecting government thinking, said President Cristina Fernandez had made up her mind on the need for state control and that internal debate was now focused on how to go about it.
It gave the possible options as expropriation or state intervention including the purchase of company shares.
To reduce the risk of legal challenges, any such move would be preceded by the passing of a law declaring oil and natural gas production as matters of public interest, the newspaper said.
"There's no going backward on this," it quoted unnamed government sources as saying. "Repsol has an extractive model for YPF that doesn't work for us. Company rationale doesn't contemplate the reinvestment of profits and putting capital into exploration and production based on what the country needs."
YPF's stock has been battered by weeks of speculation about a possible renationalization and a series of sanctions by national and provincial authorities, such as the withdrawal of operating licenses.
YPF officials have defended the company's investment record and criticized provinces for revoking its concessions.
It says its investment in Argentina rose 50 percent in 2011, with most of the cash channeled into upstream including exploration projects like those that led to the huge Vaca Muerta shale find, which could potentially double Argentina's energy output.
(Reporting By Helen Popper; Editing by Philip Barbara)
From: Dennis Roth Read Replies (1) of 166597
Argentina decides to control oil firm YPF: report
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/ ... 8520120331
BUENOS AIRES | Sat Mar 31, 2012 8:15am EDT
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentina's government has made the decision to take control of leading energy company YPF and is discussing whether to renationalize it or intervene in its administration, a newspaper reported on Saturday.
YPF (YPFD.BA), which is controlled by Spain's Repsol (REP.MC), is under intense pressure from the center-left government to boost output to reduce surging fuel imports that are eroding the country's trade surplus.
Pagina 12 newspaper, which is seen as reflecting government thinking, said President Cristina Fernandez had made up her mind on the need for state control and that internal debate was now focused on how to go about it.
It gave the possible options as expropriation or state intervention including the purchase of company shares.
To reduce the risk of legal challenges, any such move would be preceded by the passing of a law declaring oil and natural gas production as matters of public interest, the newspaper said.
"There's no going backward on this," it quoted unnamed government sources as saying. "Repsol has an extractive model for YPF that doesn't work for us. Company rationale doesn't contemplate the reinvestment of profits and putting capital into exploration and production based on what the country needs."
YPF's stock has been battered by weeks of speculation about a possible renationalization and a series of sanctions by national and provincial authorities, such as the withdrawal of operating licenses.
YPF officials have defended the company's investment record and criticized provinces for revoking its concessions.
It says its investment in Argentina rose 50 percent in 2011, with most of the cash channeled into upstream including exploration projects like those that led to the huge Vaca Muerta shale find, which could potentially double Argentina's energy output.
(Reporting By Helen Popper; Editing by Philip Barbara)
Re: GTE: Updated Forecast
CIBC on GTE:
Gran Tierra Energy Inc.
Proa-2 Tests 6.3 MBbls/d In Argentina; Q1/12
Impacted By Pipeline Disruptions
Gran Tierra drilled and tested the Proa-2 appraisal well in the Surubi Block
(85% W.I., Op.) in Argentina, encountering ~31m of net pay in two Palmar
Largo intervals. Production tests on the two intervals resulted in combined
natural flow rates of 6,300 Bbls/d gross of 46° API oil with no water cut.
The Ramiriqui-1 exploration well in LLA-22 (45% W.I., Non-op) reached TD,
encountering zones with oil shows during drilling of the Mirador Formation.
The company plans to test the reservoir and hydrocarbon character of the
zones with oil shows and expects testing results in April 2012.
Q1/12 production and sales have been impacted by OTA pipeline disruptions
in Colombia. Also, a change in sales point and related increase in oil
inventory will reduce oil sales by ~1.6 MBoe/d NAR in Q1. GTE expects Q1
sales to average ~16 MBoe/d NAR, lower than our 18.8 MBoe/d estimate.
Impact: Slightly Positive. The positive results from Proa-2 more than offset
the Q1 production issues. Furthermore, oil shows from the Ramiriqui-1 well
are positive indications as we await test results in April. We maintain our
Sector Outperformer rating and C$7.15/share price target.
Gran Tierra Energy Inc.
Proa-2 Tests 6.3 MBbls/d In Argentina; Q1/12
Impacted By Pipeline Disruptions
Gran Tierra drilled and tested the Proa-2 appraisal well in the Surubi Block
(85% W.I., Op.) in Argentina, encountering ~31m of net pay in two Palmar
Largo intervals. Production tests on the two intervals resulted in combined
natural flow rates of 6,300 Bbls/d gross of 46° API oil with no water cut.
The Ramiriqui-1 exploration well in LLA-22 (45% W.I., Non-op) reached TD,
encountering zones with oil shows during drilling of the Mirador Formation.
The company plans to test the reservoir and hydrocarbon character of the
zones with oil shows and expects testing results in April 2012.
Q1/12 production and sales have been impacted by OTA pipeline disruptions
in Colombia. Also, a change in sales point and related increase in oil
inventory will reduce oil sales by ~1.6 MBoe/d NAR in Q1. GTE expects Q1
sales to average ~16 MBoe/d NAR, lower than our 18.8 MBoe/d estimate.
Impact: Slightly Positive. The positive results from Proa-2 more than offset
the Q1 production issues. Furthermore, oil shows from the Ramiriqui-1 well
are positive indications as we await test results in April. We maintain our
Sector Outperformer rating and C$7.15/share price target.
Re: GTE: Updated Forecast
Gran Tierra Energy Confirms New Oil Discovery with 2,525 BOPD Production Test at Ramiriqui-1, Colombia 04/11 07:00 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CALGARY, April 11, 2012 /PRNewswire/ - Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%) ("Gran Tierra Energy") , a company focused on oil exploration and production in South America, today provided updates for its operations in Colombia.
Colombia
Llanos-22 Block, Llanos Basin (CEPSA 55% WI and Operator, Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%) 45% WI subject to Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburosapproval)
The Ramiriqui-1 oil exploration well in the Llanos-22 block, located in the Andean foothills trend of the Llanos Basin, has reached total depth at 19,519 feet measured depth ("MD") in basement. Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%) , along with its operating partner Compania Espanola de Petroleos, S.A.U. ("CEPSA"), has completed initial testing on Ramiriqui-1 by collecting reservoir data and fluid samples from the Mirador formation. The Mirador formation has 130 feet gross thickness and was perforated and tested from 17,610 feet to 17,630 feet MD in the uppermost primary reservoir interval. The interval had natural flow rates, without pumps, of up to 2,525 barrels of oil per day ("BOPD") gross over 32.5 hours with a 28/64 inch choke and a 0.12% watercut with 26°API gravity oil. The Ramiriqui-1 well flowed at a restricted rate due to gas flaring limitations.
The partners are currently evaluating options for testing additional reservoir intervals, drilling of an appraisal well, and implementation of an early production program.
"We are extremely pleased with the early success of Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%) 's 2012 exploration drilling program, building on our growing reserves and production base in the Llanos Basin." said Dana Coffield, President and Chief Executive Officer of Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%) . "This is the first of four exploration wells planned for this year in Colombia, with two in the Llanos Basin and two in the Putumayo Basin. In addition, one exploration well in Peru, two exploration wells in Brazil and three exploration wells in Argentina are planned through the balance of the year."
Azar Block, Putumayo Basin (Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%) 40% WI and Operator, Lewis Energy Colombia Inc. 40% WI, Gold Oil 20% WI subject to Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburosapproval)
Civil construction has commenced for the La Vega Este-1 oil exploration well. The drilling rig is expected to mobilize from the Costayaco-15 well site to the La Vega Este-1 wellsite and is expected to begin drilling in late April, 2012. The La Vega Este-1 well is targeting the same Cretaceous Sandstone intervals present in the Costayaco and Moqueta discoveries.
About Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%)
Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%) is an international oil and gas exploration and production company, headquartered in Calgary, Canada, incorporated in the United States, trading on the NYSE Amex Exchange (GTE) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (GTE), and operating in South America. Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%) holds interests in producing and prospective properties in Colombia, Argentina, Peru, and Brazil. Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%) has a strategy that focuses on establishing a portfolio of producing properties, plus production enhancement and exploration opportunities to provide a base for future growth.
Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%) 's Securities and Exchange Commission filings are available on a web site maintained by the Securities and Exchange Commission at http://www.sec.gov and on SEDAR at http://www
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CALGARY, April 11, 2012 /PRNewswire/ - Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%) ("Gran Tierra Energy") , a company focused on oil exploration and production in South America, today provided updates for its operations in Colombia.
Colombia
Llanos-22 Block, Llanos Basin (CEPSA 55% WI and Operator, Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%) 45% WI subject to Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburosapproval)
The Ramiriqui-1 oil exploration well in the Llanos-22 block, located in the Andean foothills trend of the Llanos Basin, has reached total depth at 19,519 feet measured depth ("MD") in basement. Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%) , along with its operating partner Compania Espanola de Petroleos, S.A.U. ("CEPSA"), has completed initial testing on Ramiriqui-1 by collecting reservoir data and fluid samples from the Mirador formation. The Mirador formation has 130 feet gross thickness and was perforated and tested from 17,610 feet to 17,630 feet MD in the uppermost primary reservoir interval. The interval had natural flow rates, without pumps, of up to 2,525 barrels of oil per day ("BOPD") gross over 32.5 hours with a 28/64 inch choke and a 0.12% watercut with 26°API gravity oil. The Ramiriqui-1 well flowed at a restricted rate due to gas flaring limitations.
The partners are currently evaluating options for testing additional reservoir intervals, drilling of an appraisal well, and implementation of an early production program.
"We are extremely pleased with the early success of Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%) 's 2012 exploration drilling program, building on our growing reserves and production base in the Llanos Basin." said Dana Coffield, President and Chief Executive Officer of Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%) . "This is the first of four exploration wells planned for this year in Colombia, with two in the Llanos Basin and two in the Putumayo Basin. In addition, one exploration well in Peru, two exploration wells in Brazil and three exploration wells in Argentina are planned through the balance of the year."
Azar Block, Putumayo Basin (Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%) 40% WI and Operator, Lewis Energy Colombia Inc. 40% WI, Gold Oil 20% WI subject to Agencia Nacional de Hidrocarburosapproval)
Civil construction has commenced for the La Vega Este-1 oil exploration well. The drilling rig is expected to mobilize from the Costayaco-15 well site to the La Vega Este-1 wellsite and is expected to begin drilling in late April, 2012. The La Vega Este-1 well is targeting the same Cretaceous Sandstone intervals present in the Costayaco and Moqueta discoveries.
About Gran Tierra Energy Inc. (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%)
Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%) is an international oil and gas exploration and production company, headquartered in Calgary, Canada, incorporated in the United States, trading on the NYSE Amex Exchange (GTE) and the Toronto Stock Exchange (GTE), and operating in South America. Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%) holds interests in producing and prospective properties in Colombia, Argentina, Peru, and Brazil. Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%) has a strategy that focuses on establishing a portfolio of producing properties, plus production enhancement and exploration opportunities to provide a base for future growth.
Gran Tierra Energy (GTE:$6.00,00$0.11,001.87%) 's Securities and Exchange Commission filings are available on a web site maintained by the Securities and Exchange Commission at http://www.sec.gov and on SEDAR at http://www
Re: GTE: Updated Forecast
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: GTE: Updated Forecast
CIBC on GTE:
Gran Tierra Energy Inc.
New Oil Discovery At Ramiriqui-1 In Colombia
With 2,525 Bbl/d Production Test
Ticker: GTE-TSX
Stock Rating: Sector Outperformer
Price (04/11/2012): C$6.02
The Ramiriqui-1 exploration well in Block LLA-22 (GTE 45% W.I.; CEPSA 55%
W.I. and operator) reached TD at 19,519 ft. MD. Initial testing was conducted
in the Mirador Formation (130 ft. gross thickness). The uppermost reservoir
interval (17,610 ft. to 17,630 ft. MD) was perforated and flow tested. The
zone flowed naturally at a gross rate up to 2,525 Bbl/d of 26° API oil over
32.5 hours with a 28/64 inch choke and 0.12% watercut. Flow rates were
restricted due to gas flaring limitations.
The partners are currently evaluating options for testing additional reservoir
intervals, drilling of an appraisal well, and implementation of an early
production program.
Impact: Positive. The preliminary results from the well are very
encouraging but GTE has not released enough data to provide a volumetric
estimate for the discovery. We currently include 1.4 MMBbls of risked
resources for Ramiriqui (4.5 MMBbls net risked at 30% COS) which equates to
C$0.18/share of risked value (C$0.59/share unrisked). Our estimates are
predicated on a 10 MMBbl gross discovery; management has indicated that
pre-drill prognosis was up to 25 MMBbl. Additional delineation wells and
testing will be required to determine the full extent of the discovery.
We expect the stock will respond positively to the news. It would be
reasonable to see a 10% increase in share price (supporting a 10 MMBbl
discovery) but at this point, and without additional information from the
company, we can only speculate on discovery size.
We maintain our SO rating and continue to see limited downside to the stock, good low-risk growth, a
strong balance sheet, and an active 2012 exploration and development
program.
Gran Tierra Energy Inc.
New Oil Discovery At Ramiriqui-1 In Colombia
With 2,525 Bbl/d Production Test
Ticker: GTE-TSX
Stock Rating: Sector Outperformer
Price (04/11/2012): C$6.02
The Ramiriqui-1 exploration well in Block LLA-22 (GTE 45% W.I.; CEPSA 55%
W.I. and operator) reached TD at 19,519 ft. MD. Initial testing was conducted
in the Mirador Formation (130 ft. gross thickness). The uppermost reservoir
interval (17,610 ft. to 17,630 ft. MD) was perforated and flow tested. The
zone flowed naturally at a gross rate up to 2,525 Bbl/d of 26° API oil over
32.5 hours with a 28/64 inch choke and 0.12% watercut. Flow rates were
restricted due to gas flaring limitations.
The partners are currently evaluating options for testing additional reservoir
intervals, drilling of an appraisal well, and implementation of an early
production program.
Impact: Positive. The preliminary results from the well are very
encouraging but GTE has not released enough data to provide a volumetric
estimate for the discovery. We currently include 1.4 MMBbls of risked
resources for Ramiriqui (4.5 MMBbls net risked at 30% COS) which equates to
C$0.18/share of risked value (C$0.59/share unrisked). Our estimates are
predicated on a 10 MMBbl gross discovery; management has indicated that
pre-drill prognosis was up to 25 MMBbl. Additional delineation wells and
testing will be required to determine the full extent of the discovery.
We expect the stock will respond positively to the news. It would be
reasonable to see a 10% increase in share price (supporting a 10 MMBbl
discovery) but at this point, and without additional information from the
company, we can only speculate on discovery size.
We maintain our SO rating and continue to see limited downside to the stock, good low-risk growth, a
strong balance sheet, and an active 2012 exploration and development
program.
Re: GTE: Updated Forecast
Investors are likely to remain fearful of E&Ps operating outside of the U.S. and Canada. If the FEAR subsides, GTE, TGA and PMG have a lot of upside for us.
I believe keeping some foreign holdings in the Sweet 16 is appropriate. All three companies have rock solid balance sheets and a lot of exploration upside. Their capital programs are more than fully funded by operating cash flows.
I believe keeping some foreign holdings in the Sweet 16 is appropriate. All three companies have rock solid balance sheets and a lot of exploration upside. Their capital programs are more than fully funded by operating cash flows.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: GTE: Updated Forecast
CS on GTE
The Full Meal Deal
Initiating Coverage with an Outperform Rating: We initiate coverage of
Gran Tierra Energy Inc. with an Outperform rating and a C$9.00 target price.
Rock Steady and Stable Base Production: The company’s current
existing production base at Costayaco and Moqueta looks to provide a
stable production platform, with which it can grow from. Offsetting base
production declines is usually a good part of the struggle to grow an oil and
gas company. We believe that having Costayaco and Moqueta, among other
fields, positions Gran Tierra firmly for future growth.
Built to Last with All Bases Covered: Gran Tierra’s current portfolio
appears to have a balance of development and exploration while also
offering diversity in geography and projects with different risk versus reward
profiles. The current set of opportunities look to provide near, medium and
long-term growth projects. On the materiality front, there appears to be
projects that are potential singles, doubles, triples, homeruns, and grand
slams. The portfolio appears to the full meal deal and looks to have been
built to last with a long-term perspective.
Impenetrable Balance Sheet: With a copious amount of cash on its
balance sheet and with expected cash flows to outpace capital expenditures,
we view the company’s financial position to be top tier. Gran Tierra also
looks to be one of the companies within our coverage universe to have the
least amount of sensitivity to downside risk on oil prices. Should the tide go
out, the Gran Tierra will likely endure.
Valuation: Our target price was derived from utilizing a 50/50 weighting to
our risked NAV valuation (US$8.23 per share) and a multiple of 5.5on our
2012 DACF estimate that implied a valuation of US$10.44. The combined
weightings resulted in a valuation of US$9.34 and our C$9.00 target price.
The Full Meal Deal
Initiating Coverage with an Outperform Rating: We initiate coverage of
Gran Tierra Energy Inc. with an Outperform rating and a C$9.00 target price.
Rock Steady and Stable Base Production: The company’s current
existing production base at Costayaco and Moqueta looks to provide a
stable production platform, with which it can grow from. Offsetting base
production declines is usually a good part of the struggle to grow an oil and
gas company. We believe that having Costayaco and Moqueta, among other
fields, positions Gran Tierra firmly for future growth.
Built to Last with All Bases Covered: Gran Tierra’s current portfolio
appears to have a balance of development and exploration while also
offering diversity in geography and projects with different risk versus reward
profiles. The current set of opportunities look to provide near, medium and
long-term growth projects. On the materiality front, there appears to be
projects that are potential singles, doubles, triples, homeruns, and grand
slams. The portfolio appears to the full meal deal and looks to have been
built to last with a long-term perspective.
Impenetrable Balance Sheet: With a copious amount of cash on its
balance sheet and with expected cash flows to outpace capital expenditures,
we view the company’s financial position to be top tier. Gran Tierra also
looks to be one of the companies within our coverage universe to have the
least amount of sensitivity to downside risk on oil prices. Should the tide go
out, the Gran Tierra will likely endure.
Valuation: Our target price was derived from utilizing a 50/50 weighting to
our risked NAV valuation (US$8.23 per share) and a multiple of 5.5on our
2012 DACF estimate that implied a valuation of US$10.44. The combined
weightings resulted in a valuation of US$9.34 and our C$9.00 target price.