exxon warns

[Fraser921]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3985953-exxon-sees-lower-natural-gas-prices-refining-margins-slashing-q2-earnings

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) -3.5% trading Thursday after forecasting sharply lower Q2 earnings from lower natural gas prices and weaker oil refining margins

Here is my surprised face:

This is what I've been warning you about.

Talo is down 7 %. Ar & SBOW, CRK,REI all are down more than 5 %! Energy is worst sector today. Gassers are getting creamed.
Appears to be a glut, recession, whatever you want to call it holding down prices, earnings and target prices, no ifs, ands or buts.

Analysts will cut TP
Dan will cut TP
I already cut TP

And crude is flat on the day

[allen46]

Frasier, your concerns in the past few months were correct. But, now you need to change course. Everyone is "out" of energy. It is time to buy. Most of Dan's stocks are riduculously cheap and many pay a nice dividend that is protected at current oil and NG prices. I am now a buyer at these depressed prices. Warren Buffett has a long term view and is accumulating OXY at these low price levels. He is rarely wrong.

[Fraser921]

Hi Allen,

I own OXY. I bought it before Buffett did. WB buying in high 50's limits the down side risks. I own selective names SGY, KEI, Baytex, TOT. No gassers ATM. I have a good position in TK which derives its value from TNK a crude mid size tanker company. The Canadians EP are looking interesting as the crude differentials tighten which offsets the price decline at WTI

I'm long term bullish on energy. Just concerned short term with q2 earnings coming out soon. How will Wall street react to negative cash flow? This in turn creates a good buying opportunity particularly if we see improvement tin the commodity price. Also, some experts are calling a recession and slow down

I will get excited with NG over 3 and Crude over 80 and will pounce on bargains.. I want back in to CRK and Ar at the right price , maybe RRC, and EQT . SBOW and GPOR on the watch list

Thanks for your input.

[allen46]

I think the relatively poor 2nd quarter results are already baked in the stock prices. I also don't see any of our stocks having negative cash flow. I can't pick the low for energy stocks but think we are close and 2nd quarter results may actually be better than the pessimistic views in the market, so i am selectively buying over the next three months or so - hope to have a very full position in energy within 3 months.