EIA Natural Gas Storage Data
Total (09/22/23): 3,359 Bcf
Total (09/15/23): 3,269 Bcf
Net change: 90 Bcf
Implied flow: 90 Bcf
Year ago stocks: 2,962 Bcf
% change from year ago: 13.4 %
5-year avg stocks: 3,170 Bcf
% change from 5-year avg: 6.0 %
Best I can tell we closed the gap to 5 year average by 132 bcf.
NG Storage Report
Re: NG Storage Report
Dan had + 75 on his swag, so a miss to Dans #
Re: NG Storage Report
Does anyone know if American Oilman has been discontinued? The link for weekly historical gas storage has not been updated since April.
Re: NG Storage Report
The American Oilman website is not being kept up-to-date. However, the 5-year weekly change in storage is still accurate through year-end.
MY TAKE:
The build for the week ending Sept 22 of 90 Bcf was 5 Bcf higher than the 5-year average, 15 Bcf higher than my WAG, but 13 Bcf lower than the same week a year ago.
The next three weeks are critical for getting HH ngas over $3.00 because they will be compared to very large builds last year.
In 2022 for the weeks ending
Sept 29 the build was +129 Bcf < My "WAG" is a build of 85 Bcf, which would take a nice bite out of the delta to last year's storage.
Oct 6 the build was +125
Oct 13 the build was +111
My WAG is that storage will still be ~170 Bcf over the 5-year average heading into winter and ~325 Bcf over the storage level heading into the 2022/2023 winter. That sounds high, but "manageable" and the U.S. consumes a lot more gas today than it did five years ago.
Here is what's needed to keep HH ngas prices over $3.00 through the winter.
> Normal winter
> LNG exports stay near capacity (13 Bcfpd)
All of my forecast models are based on HH ngas averaging $2.75 in Q4 and $3.25 in 2024
MY TAKE:
The build for the week ending Sept 22 of 90 Bcf was 5 Bcf higher than the 5-year average, 15 Bcf higher than my WAG, but 13 Bcf lower than the same week a year ago.
The next three weeks are critical for getting HH ngas over $3.00 because they will be compared to very large builds last year.
In 2022 for the weeks ending
Sept 29 the build was +129 Bcf < My "WAG" is a build of 85 Bcf, which would take a nice bite out of the delta to last year's storage.
Oct 6 the build was +125
Oct 13 the build was +111
My WAG is that storage will still be ~170 Bcf over the 5-year average heading into winter and ~325 Bcf over the storage level heading into the 2022/2023 winter. That sounds high, but "manageable" and the U.S. consumes a lot more gas today than it did five years ago.
Here is what's needed to keep HH ngas prices over $3.00 through the winter.
> Normal winter
> LNG exports stay near capacity (13 Bcfpd)
All of my forecast models are based on HH ngas averaging $2.75 in Q4 and $3.25 in 2024
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group