Oil prices hit a five month low today but investors need to keep in mind that May is ALWAYS a soft month for crude oil fundamentals. Demand ALWAYS pick up in June and this year will not be an exception. Could oil dip down to $90/bbl? Of course it can, but I'm expecting demand to pick up in a few weeks and Iran to come back into the discussion soon. Also, it is important to note that OPEC is more in charge than they were a year ago. Saudi Arabia needs high revenues from oil sales to maintain their social programs. - Dan
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Citigroup’s commodities analysts led by Aakash Doshi hold hope for a more price-bullish summer for at least a few corners of the market. They’re notably bullish on oil, where they venture that “it could be all up from here into the summer”:
In crude, prices should appreciate into the summer after the recent retrenchment, but binary tail risks to both the upside and downside abound. Crude prices have softened considerably this May, as in previous years, but this time the sell-off has only been partially to do with macroeconomic worries, and more to do with breaking through key technical support levels. To be sure, there is some bearishness in fundamentals. Global inventories have been building as heightened Saudi and OPEC production outweigh lost Iranian barrels and other global supply disruptions, filling commercial (and strategic, in the case of China) stockpiles around the world. US stocks are becoming bloated, although OECD Europe inventories remain low, while Saudi stocks are ample and Chinese strategic stocks look to be filling at rapid rates. But the market is at the trough of the year for global refinery throughput and global product demand, with European refiners taking longer than expected to return from deep ‘spring cleaning’ maintenance. At the same time, recent tanker movements have seen high crude net inflows into Northwest Europe, pressuring Brent structure further. Brent time spreads at the front are already back to the levels before the early-May sell-off, and should strengthen further – on average, it could be all up from here into the summer.
Oil Prices
Oil Prices
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil Prices
(Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama will seek support to tap emergency oil reserves from other Group of Eight leaders at a summit this weekend before the European Union's July embargo of Iranian crude, Kyodo news agency reported on Wednesday.
Re: Oil Prices
Top News (We spent all the money, now let's deplete our reserve of oil. Very political move and very risky IMHO. - Dan)
UPDATE 4-U.S. to seek G8 support for oil reserve release-Kyodo
Wed, May 16 17:21 PM EDT
* Obama to seek G8 coordination to tap emergency stocks-Kyodo
* Japan PM likely to support move; new French leader not opposed
* IEA saw no need for reserves two weeks ago; German view unclear
* Oil prices, down 16 pct since March, unmoved by new talk (Adds comments from House Republicans)
WASHINGTON/PARIS, May 16 (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama will seek support to tap emergency oil reserves from other Group of Eight leaders at a summit this weekend before the European Union's July embargo of Iranian crude, Kyodo news agency reported on W edn esday.
The report suggests that a slide in oil prices to their lowest in months has not halted U.S. efforts to use strategic oil stockpiles to offset diminishing exports from Iran, which is facing tough new sanctions on its oil industry.
The EU ban on imports comes into full force in July.
Kyodo said Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda was expected to support the call, which comes after several months of discussion with allies including France and Britain. It is the first indication that Japan may support the move, although it is far from clear that skeptical nations like Germany have been won over.
The White House declined comment on the report.
"General energy and climate change issues will be discussed at the G8, as part of a larger focus on the economic issues. As we have said repeatedly, all options remain on the table, but we have no additional announcement to make," an administration official said.
Separately, a French diplomatic source suggested that newly-elected Socialist President Francois Hollande was also prepared to go along with efforts to tap government-held stockpiles, a change of stance from prior to the vote.
"The U.S. has an approach that we don't condemn," a diplomatic source under the new presidency said, without specifying what the U.S. approach was. "I think the discussions will be easy and I don't expect any conflict on this question," he added ahead of a Friday meeting between Obama and Hollande.
In pursuing what would be an unprecedented second release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) during his term, Obama may be embarking on a risky political strategy. While he may help head off a damaging spike in gasoline prices this summer, he also risks attack from foes who argue that the SPR should be reserved for use only in the event of a supply crisis.
"As an economic matter, the timing would require explanation. As a foreign policy tool this would be a smart bomb detonated in the heart of the Iranian economy with no physical casualties," said David Goldwyn, who headed international energy affairs at the State Department until early 2011. "You have to love the move from a strategic perspective."
U.S. crude oil prices, which were already down sharply when the news hit, edged still lower after the report. Oil closed down 1.24 percent at $92.81 a barrel.
Oil traders have been on alert for a possible SPR release since March, when news of discussion first surfaced amid signs that Iran's oil exports were already starting to suffer. But prices have fallen 16 percent since then, dropping to their lowest in months on concerns about global economic growth.
SATURDAY DISCUSSION
Obama will raise the request during a discussion of energy issues on Saturday at the meeting in Camp David, stressing the need to stabilize oil prices and demonstrate solidarity in putting more pressure on Iran, Kyodo reported, citing sources close to Japan-U.S. ties that it didn't name.
Kyodo said that it was uncertain whether other G8 countries would support Obama's call. Some, such as Germany, have tended to resist using emergency stockpiles. The International Energy Agency's chief Maria van der Hoeven said two weeks ago she saw no need for tapping stocks as the market was well supplied.
A representative for the IEA, which coordinates energy policy among the world's industrialized energy consumers, had no comment on Wednesday.
Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger told Reuters earlier on Wednesday that the European Commission is in close contact with the United States and the IEA, but sees no immediate need for any release of oil stocks.
Kyodo did not provide any details as to when such a release could occur, but many analysts say Iran's exports could decline sharply from July as tough new EU sanctions on oil shipments come into full effect.
Last year, the IEA coordinated a global release of 60 million barrels in order to offset the war in Libya, which had cut off the OPEC member's 1.2 million barrel per day of exports.
High gasoline prices remain a vulnerability for Obama ahead of the Nov. 6 election, even though they have slipped for six straight weeks.
"He's looking for a quick political fix by accessing the SPR, and he's using any excuse to do that," said Cory Gardner, a Republican congressman from Colorado.
Gardner has introduced a bill that would require the government to make more federal land available for drilling when it taps the reserves.
Joe Barton, a veteran Republican lawmaker from Texas, said the sanctions on Iran would not constitute a supply shortage required by U.S. law to trigger a release of the reserves.
"He has to declare a national emergency to use it, and there is no national emergency. Gasoline prices are up, but they're going down," Barton said.
But Edward Markey, a Democratic congressman who has urged the president to use the reserves, argued the move would be warranted.
"Going forward, the uncertainties arising from Iran's nuclear ambitions, and the prospect of economic sanctions against Tehran, justifies the president's coalition-building to deploy oil reserves if needed to protect American drivers and the world economy," Markey said in a statement. (Reporting By Jonathan Leff, Timothy Gardner, Jeff Mason, Roberta Rampton and Ayesha Rascoe in Washington, and Muriel Boselli in Paris; Editing by Maureen Bavdek, David Gregorio, M.D. Golan and Marguerita Choy)
UPDATE 4-U.S. to seek G8 support for oil reserve release-Kyodo
Wed, May 16 17:21 PM EDT
* Obama to seek G8 coordination to tap emergency stocks-Kyodo
* Japan PM likely to support move; new French leader not opposed
* IEA saw no need for reserves two weeks ago; German view unclear
* Oil prices, down 16 pct since March, unmoved by new talk (Adds comments from House Republicans)
WASHINGTON/PARIS, May 16 (Reuters) - U.S. President Barack Obama will seek support to tap emergency oil reserves from other Group of Eight leaders at a summit this weekend before the European Union's July embargo of Iranian crude, Kyodo news agency reported on W edn esday.
The report suggests that a slide in oil prices to their lowest in months has not halted U.S. efforts to use strategic oil stockpiles to offset diminishing exports from Iran, which is facing tough new sanctions on its oil industry.
The EU ban on imports comes into full force in July.
Kyodo said Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda was expected to support the call, which comes after several months of discussion with allies including France and Britain. It is the first indication that Japan may support the move, although it is far from clear that skeptical nations like Germany have been won over.
The White House declined comment on the report.
"General energy and climate change issues will be discussed at the G8, as part of a larger focus on the economic issues. As we have said repeatedly, all options remain on the table, but we have no additional announcement to make," an administration official said.
Separately, a French diplomatic source suggested that newly-elected Socialist President Francois Hollande was also prepared to go along with efforts to tap government-held stockpiles, a change of stance from prior to the vote.
"The U.S. has an approach that we don't condemn," a diplomatic source under the new presidency said, without specifying what the U.S. approach was. "I think the discussions will be easy and I don't expect any conflict on this question," he added ahead of a Friday meeting between Obama and Hollande.
In pursuing what would be an unprecedented second release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) during his term, Obama may be embarking on a risky political strategy. While he may help head off a damaging spike in gasoline prices this summer, he also risks attack from foes who argue that the SPR should be reserved for use only in the event of a supply crisis.
"As an economic matter, the timing would require explanation. As a foreign policy tool this would be a smart bomb detonated in the heart of the Iranian economy with no physical casualties," said David Goldwyn, who headed international energy affairs at the State Department until early 2011. "You have to love the move from a strategic perspective."
U.S. crude oil prices, which were already down sharply when the news hit, edged still lower after the report. Oil closed down 1.24 percent at $92.81 a barrel.
Oil traders have been on alert for a possible SPR release since March, when news of discussion first surfaced amid signs that Iran's oil exports were already starting to suffer. But prices have fallen 16 percent since then, dropping to their lowest in months on concerns about global economic growth.
SATURDAY DISCUSSION
Obama will raise the request during a discussion of energy issues on Saturday at the meeting in Camp David, stressing the need to stabilize oil prices and demonstrate solidarity in putting more pressure on Iran, Kyodo reported, citing sources close to Japan-U.S. ties that it didn't name.
Kyodo said that it was uncertain whether other G8 countries would support Obama's call. Some, such as Germany, have tended to resist using emergency stockpiles. The International Energy Agency's chief Maria van der Hoeven said two weeks ago she saw no need for tapping stocks as the market was well supplied.
A representative for the IEA, which coordinates energy policy among the world's industrialized energy consumers, had no comment on Wednesday.
Energy Commissioner Guenther Oettinger told Reuters earlier on Wednesday that the European Commission is in close contact with the United States and the IEA, but sees no immediate need for any release of oil stocks.
Kyodo did not provide any details as to when such a release could occur, but many analysts say Iran's exports could decline sharply from July as tough new EU sanctions on oil shipments come into full effect.
Last year, the IEA coordinated a global release of 60 million barrels in order to offset the war in Libya, which had cut off the OPEC member's 1.2 million barrel per day of exports.
High gasoline prices remain a vulnerability for Obama ahead of the Nov. 6 election, even though they have slipped for six straight weeks.
"He's looking for a quick political fix by accessing the SPR, and he's using any excuse to do that," said Cory Gardner, a Republican congressman from Colorado.
Gardner has introduced a bill that would require the government to make more federal land available for drilling when it taps the reserves.
Joe Barton, a veteran Republican lawmaker from Texas, said the sanctions on Iran would not constitute a supply shortage required by U.S. law to trigger a release of the reserves.
"He has to declare a national emergency to use it, and there is no national emergency. Gasoline prices are up, but they're going down," Barton said.
But Edward Markey, a Democratic congressman who has urged the president to use the reserves, argued the move would be warranted.
"Going forward, the uncertainties arising from Iran's nuclear ambitions, and the prospect of economic sanctions against Tehran, justifies the president's coalition-building to deploy oil reserves if needed to protect American drivers and the world economy," Markey said in a statement. (Reporting By Jonathan Leff, Timothy Gardner, Jeff Mason, Roberta Rampton and Ayesha Rascoe in Washington, and Muriel Boselli in Paris; Editing by Maureen Bavdek, David Gregorio, M.D. Golan and Marguerita Choy)
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group