Antero Resources press release (NYSE:AR): Q3 GAAP EPS of $0.06 beats by $0.04.
Revenue of $1.13B (-45.1% Y/Y) beats by $80M.
Net production averaged 3.5 Bcfe/d, an increase of 9% from the year ago period
2023 Guidance Updates:
Increasing full year 2023 production guidance to a range of 3.39 to 3.41 Bcfe/d
Decreasing cash production costs to a range of $2.35 to $2.40 per Mcfe
Decreasing net marketing expense to a range of $0.05 to $0.07 per Mcfe
Decreasing realized natural gas price premium to flat to NYMEX Henry Hub
Antero Q3
Re: Antero Q3
Antero Resources (AR) is a strong candidate for moving back into the Sweet 16 in 2024. We are going to publish updated profiles on AR and Antero Midstream (AM) in November.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Antero Q3
Truist Financial's price target for AR is $37.
Antero Resources Corporation (AR)
3Q23 Beat, Guidance Nudged Higher Yet Again
Antero reported a 3Q23 FCF beat with higher capex, but stronger NGL pricing, lower costs,
and higher production offsetting the overspend. The company continued its no-hedging
strategy, and updated differentials/cost guidance for the year (pricing worse, costs better).
Updated language surrounding FY24 capital shifted to "materially below" the '23 program to
hold the newly raised production levels, in-line but slightly different from last quarter's "10%
below" which will likely be addressed on tomorrow's call. Outside of more specific FY24
guidance we don't expect any material changes to AR's stable operational plan, and expect
the name will perform in-line or slightly better than the group tomorrow given the quarterly
beat and guidance improvement.
Operational/Financial Updates
• AR did not repurchase any shares in 3Q, as expected, given the lack of FCF
• AR added the equivalent of 14 incremental drilling locations in 3Q, at an average cost of
~$1.9mm/location, versus last quarter's 27/$1.3mm
• No new hedges were entered into, in-line with the company's prior strategy
• FY23 production was increased by ~1% at the midpoint and capex guidance was
reiterated (see table below for details)
• FY23 gas realizations were guided down due to downtime and index exposure, and cash
expenses ticked down yet again to account for lower fuel costs and production taxes
• 60-d well results were lower than last quarter's wells on both a nominal and per foot basis,
with much longer laterals being drilled q/q
Antero Resources Corporation (AR)
3Q23 Beat, Guidance Nudged Higher Yet Again
Antero reported a 3Q23 FCF beat with higher capex, but stronger NGL pricing, lower costs,
and higher production offsetting the overspend. The company continued its no-hedging
strategy, and updated differentials/cost guidance for the year (pricing worse, costs better).
Updated language surrounding FY24 capital shifted to "materially below" the '23 program to
hold the newly raised production levels, in-line but slightly different from last quarter's "10%
below" which will likely be addressed on tomorrow's call. Outside of more specific FY24
guidance we don't expect any material changes to AR's stable operational plan, and expect
the name will perform in-line or slightly better than the group tomorrow given the quarterly
beat and guidance improvement.
Operational/Financial Updates
• AR did not repurchase any shares in 3Q, as expected, given the lack of FCF
• AR added the equivalent of 14 incremental drilling locations in 3Q, at an average cost of
~$1.9mm/location, versus last quarter's 27/$1.3mm
• No new hedges were entered into, in-line with the company's prior strategy
• FY23 production was increased by ~1% at the midpoint and capex guidance was
reiterated (see table below for details)
• FY23 gas realizations were guided down due to downtime and index exposure, and cash
expenses ticked down yet again to account for lower fuel costs and production taxes
• 60-d well results were lower than last quarter's wells on both a nominal and per foot basis,
with much longer laterals being drilled q/q
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group