Comments below are from Art Berman
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Recent geopolitical events in the Middle East create uncertainty about the crucial flow of oil, LNG and materials through the Red Sea-Suez Canal and the Persian Gulf-Strait of Hormuz.
“The biggest choke-point of course is the Strait of Hormuz where around 20 million barrels of the world’s oil is transported every day…If that were to be disrupted…that would cause major chaos in global financial, oil and delivery markets…We have a six-continent supply chain and it’s predicated on peace, and credit, and available, affordable oil. All those things are less certain going forward.” - Nate Hagens
Almost 9 million barrels of oil per day (mmb/d) pass through the Suez Canal and the Bab al-Mandab Strait. Houthi forces have disrupted shipping through those key passages to a greater extent than most experts thought possible. In the first week of April, the number of ships passing through the canal decreased by 66% compared to the same period last year. Crossings at the Bab-al Mandab, a crucial passage to and from the Red Sea, fell by 59% during the same period.
The Houthis recently expanded their range by successfully attacking shipping in the Indian Ocean. Now, they say that they can hit ships in the Eastern Mediterranean.
“Yemen’s Houthis say they can now hit the Eastern Mediterranean as well as the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea. If all three and Suez are out of bounds for Western shipping without naval escort, Operation ‘Prosperity Guardian’ [to protect Suez shipping] is an expensive bad joke.”
Michael Every, Global Strategist at Rabobank
The developments in the Red Sea demonstrate how the emergence of mobile missiles and drones is transforming naval warfare, much like aircraft carriers revolutionized it in the previous century. The significance cannot be overstated.
Ships are now forced to take the much longer route by the Cape of Good Hope to move oil and materials around the world. That adds an average of about 3500 miles, and more than $2.8 million per ship once fuel, operating costs and insurance are included. It is further projected to increase carbon emissions by 42% per ship for a standard Asia-North Europe voyage.
"Oil prices have been twice as high for the last twenty years as they were for the previous twenty in March 2024-adjusted dollars. That is because there has been a relative supply scarcity since 2003 that was interrupted for about five years by lower, more abundant supply from U.S. shale plays between 2015 through 2020. That pulse of cheaper supply is ending."
Read more: https://www.artberman.com/blog/the-biggest-risks-of-this-decade/
Oil Supply Risk
Oil Supply Risk
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil Supply Risk
Iran hiacked a chevron tanker a few weeks ago
the ship is worth 57 m the cargo 80 m
And dumbazz Biden givens iran 6 b cash for nothing but a bag of donuts and kick back to the big guy
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-seized-oil-tanker-us-navy-rcna81739
Worse:
Insurance companies wont pay the claim, behind paywall but you see partial details
https://www.tradewindsnews.com/insurance/us-oil-giant-chevron-denied-57m-insurance-claim-for-tanker-seized-by-iran/2-1-1641467
the ship is worth 57 m the cargo 80 m
And dumbazz Biden givens iran 6 b cash for nothing but a bag of donuts and kick back to the big guy
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-seized-oil-tanker-us-navy-rcna81739
Worse:
Insurance companies wont pay the claim, behind paywall but you see partial details
https://www.tradewindsnews.com/insurance/us-oil-giant-chevron-denied-57m-insurance-claim-for-tanker-seized-by-iran/2-1-1641467