Asia JKM price is $11.83/MMbtu
Europe TTF price is $10.75/MMbtu
Since the beginning of this year, China has seen a strong recovery in natural gas demand, benefiting from low spot LNG prices. The country has noticeably increased its monthly LNG imports compared to the same period last year, according to data from the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC). Chinese LNG demand is expected to continue growing as new LNG terminals are due to come onstream in the upcoming months.
In January, China received 7.25 million tons of LNG, an uptick of 22.7% year-on-year. LNG imports later increased in February by 14.2% year-on-year, to 5.95 million tons, while in March volumes rose by 24.1% year-on-year to 6.65 million tons. As industrial LNG demand kept recovering, China increased its LNG imports in April by 30.4% year-on-year to 6.22 million tons, but down 6.4% month-on-month.
Overall, China imported a total of 26.07 million tons of LNG in the first four months of 2024, up 23.47% over the same period last year, according to the GACC data, and our calculations. Last year, China imported 71.84 million tons of LNG, up 13% year-on-year, overtaking Japan as the world’s largest LNG importer.
Bottomline: Demand for U.S. LNG is high.
LNG Prices
LNG Prices
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: LNG Prices
Note from HFI Research on May 31:
"Turning to the demand side, the outlook for the natural gas market looks—dare we say it—bright when producer supply restraint is considered against the backdrop of bullish macro demand factors. While we view the optimistic demand projections related to an AI infrastructure buildout as more hype than substance, the LNG demand boost about to occur is every bit as real as the bullish forecasts imply. Over the next three years, the startup of LNG export facilities will boost domestic natural gas demand by 11.6 Bcf/d, or more than 10% from the current level."
"This structural demand increase is expected to materialize with no additional boost from power burn. When combined with producer discipline amid low prices, it can contribute to sustained higher natural gas prices, which will directly benefit E&Ps."
"Turning to the demand side, the outlook for the natural gas market looks—dare we say it—bright when producer supply restraint is considered against the backdrop of bullish macro demand factors. While we view the optimistic demand projections related to an AI infrastructure buildout as more hype than substance, the LNG demand boost about to occur is every bit as real as the bullish forecasts imply. Over the next three years, the startup of LNG export facilities will boost domestic natural gas demand by 11.6 Bcf/d, or more than 10% from the current level."
"This structural demand increase is expected to materialize with no additional boost from power burn. When combined with producer discipline amid low prices, it can contribute to sustained higher natural gas prices, which will directly benefit E&Ps."
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group