Sweet 16 Update as of July 7

[dan_s]

Each weekend I compare my forecast models to what First Call is expecting for earnings and cash flow per share. For most of the companies in the Sweet 16 my EPS forecast is slightly lower than what First Call is expecting, which makes me feel good about my Fair Value estimates. There are a few surprises each quarter but I am expecting 2nd quarter results to be solid.

I think the Bakken companies (CLR, DNR, EOG, KOG, OAS, PBKEF, SM and WLL) will report better than expected realized oil prices on their North Dakota production. Differentials were $15-$20 per barrel in the first quarter due to market conditions created by a refinery being down for maintenance. In April the differentals went down to just a couple dollars.

Energy XXI (EXXI) has a June 30 fiscal year-end, so they will report a new 3rd party estimate of their proven reserves. It should be impressive.

I think Comstock Resources (CRK) has the best chance to soundly beat the First Call estimates.

Gulfport Energy (GPOR) will provide an update on their Utica Shale drilling program that many analysts are eagerly awaiting, including me.

Four companies are now trading at less than half my Fair Value estimates (DNR, EXXI, PBKEF, WLL).

You can find a table showing my Fair Value estimate to the current First Call Price Target under the Sweet 16 Tab.