Natural Gas getting better

[dan_s]

If we get "normal" winter in December, we should see $4/mmbtu by year-end. The next six weeks of NG Storage reports are very important. Injections need to stay at or below the 5-year average. - Dan

EIA: U.S. Natural Gas Consumption
By U.S. Energy Information Administration - Wed 11 Jul 2012 14:59:11 CT

EIA expects that natural gas consumption will average 69.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2012, an increase of 3.3 Bcf/d (4.9 percent) from 2011 and an upward revision of 0.5 Bcf/d from last month's Outlook. EIA expects that large gains in electric power use in 2012 will more than offset declines in residential and commercial use.

Projected consumption of natural gas in the electric power sector grows by 21 percent in 2012, primarily driven by the increased relative cost advantages of natural gas over coal for power generation in some regions. Consumption in the electric power sector peaks at 31.2 Bcf/d in the third quarter of 2012, when electricity demand for air conditioning is highest. This compares with 27.7 Bcf/d during the third quarter of 2011.

Growth in total natural gas consumption slows in 2013, with forecast consumption averaging 71.1 Bcf/d (U.S. Natural Gas Consumption Chart). However, unlike 2012, growth in 2013 is driven by consumption increases from the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. A forecast of near-normal weather next winter drives 2013 increases in residential and commercial consumption of 7.7 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively. Although projected natural gas burn in the electric power sector declines by 1.9 percent from 2012, it remains at historically high levels in 2013