EIA - Weekly Petroleum Report - July 31

[dan_s]

Bullish report. The U.S. and all OECD Petroleum inventories are on decline. Oil-based product inventories measured on Days of Consumption point to much higher oil prices than we have today. We also have a "Hot War" in the Middle East.

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending July 26, 2024

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.2 million barrels per day during the week ending July 26, 2024, which was 258 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 90.1% of their operable capacity last week. < Low utilization rate for July.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 10.0 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.0 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.0 million barrels per day last week, increased by 82 thousand barrels per day from the previous week.
Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.9 million barrels per day, 5.9% more than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 917 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 140 thousand barrels per day.

Inventories. Key stat is the comparison to the 5-year average.

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 433.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year.

> Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.7 million barrels from last week and are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Both finished gasoline and blending components inventories decreased last week.

> Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels last week and are about 7% below the five year average for this time of year.

> Propane/propylene inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels from last week and are 16% above the five year average for this time of year.

>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 2.4 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.5 million barrels a day, up by 1.4% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.2 million barrels a day, up by 4.2% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.7 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 3.2% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 1.2% compared with the same four-week period last year.

[dan_s]

EIA data shows that U.S demand for petroleum products is up 1.4% year-over-year, with gasoline demand up 4.2% year-over-year.

U.S. oil production has flatlined around 13.1 million barrels per day. We are not completing enough new wells to offset declining production from the older wells.

Trump's promise of "Drill Baby Drill" is not going to have the impact that it did during his first term. The Permian Basin is the only U.S. oil basin with significant upside and lack of pipeline takeaway capacity, thanks to Team Biden's War on Fossil Fuels, will keep a lid on Permian oil & gas production for at least year. Team Trump needs to fast track pipeline and other infrastructure projects.