Oil & Gas Prices - August 7

[dan_s]

Primary reason for rebound in oil price: "The Sky is Not Falling".

Trading Economics
"WTI crude oil futures rose above $75 per barrel on Wednesday, continuing their upward trend after the EIA report showed a larger-than-expected drop in US crude oil inventories. Crude stocks fell for the sixth week, declining by 3.728 million barrels, much more than the anticipated 0.4 million barrel decrease. However, gasoline and distillate stockpiles increased during this period. Rising oil prices are also being driven by supply-side concerns. Tensions are escalating in the Middle East, with reports of Hamas appointing a new leader, Yahya Sinwar, potentially heightening conflict with Israel and threatening regional oil supplies. Additionally, Libya's largest oil field, Sharara, has announced a reduction in production due to protests and security issues."

"US natural gas futures rose above $2.08/MMBtu this morning due to forecasts of warmer weather in the coming weeks, which could increase gas consumption by power generators. Although some cooling is expected in the mid-continent due to Hurricane Debby, a broader trend of warmer temperatures across the US next week is expected to support prices. Export activity has also recovered, but high production levels, around 103 bcfd, may limit significant price increases and lead to larger storage injections. In August, gas output in the Lower 48 states averaged 103.8 bcfd, up from 103.4 bcfd in July but still below December's record of 105.5 bcfd."

[aja57]

Dan, is Dutch TTF gas prices related primarily to weather in Europe ? There is no prediction for extreme weather in the next two weeks. Are the Europeans starting to squirrel away gas for the winter? I only ask because TTF prices have been breaking out for the last ten days. It seems as if Henry Hub NG prices are starting to brake out of a three week trading range. Also seems that there is a lag of two weeks on average between TTF and NG. Does any of this have to do with our LNG exports?