https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_6fpFDLpXY
I spend more time on the U.S. natural market in this podcast. Over the summer, the EIA weekly natural gas storage reports have been extremely bullish with weekly builds (and last week's 6 Bcf draw) being 290 Bcf lower than the 5-year average since mid-April (16 weeks). There is still a surplus of natural gas in U.S. storage compared to the 5-year average, but physical supply/demand is much tighter than normal this summer.
I do think the price risk is to the upside for both oil and gas.
Trading Economic this morning:
"US natural gas futures surged 5% to over $2.20/MMBtu, approaching a one-month high amid tightening supply and demand. Forecasts predict intense heat across much of the western, central, and southern US this week, which is expected to drive up cooling demand and boost natural gas use. Although cooler weather is expected in the Northeast and Midwest, which may dampen some demand, an unusual mid-summer storage withdrawal reported by the EIA, the first in August since 2006, reflects higher cooling needs. Additionally, lower production levels at 100.6 Bcf/d have further supported prices."
Dan's August 18th podcast link
Dan's August 18th podcast link
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
ng storage
Is storage unlimited?
No, it's capped at 3.9-4.0 bcf. Therefore , storage has to decline relative to 5 year because there is nowhere to put it
I'd be shocked if there is another draw this week
Celsius has injections of +35,+37,+21, +49 = +142 next 4 weeks -60 to 5 yr average
https://www.celsiusenergy.net/
WTI is not acting like oil is tight. Q1 2025 winter prices are a putrid 71-72. If one think the price will rise to 90, you will make a fortune buying winter wti at 71.
No, it's capped at 3.9-4.0 bcf. Therefore , storage has to decline relative to 5 year because there is nowhere to put it
I'd be shocked if there is another draw this week
Celsius has injections of +35,+37,+21, +49 = +142 next 4 weeks -60 to 5 yr average
https://www.celsiusenergy.net/
WTI is not acting like oil is tight. Q1 2025 winter prices are a putrid 71-72. If one think the price will rise to 90, you will make a fortune buying winter wti at 71.