Dan's August 18th podcast link
Posted: Mon Aug 19, 2024 9:20 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-_6fpFDLpXY
I spend more time on the U.S. natural market in this podcast. Over the summer, the EIA weekly natural gas storage reports have been extremely bullish with weekly builds (and last week's 6 Bcf draw) being 290 Bcf lower than the 5-year average since mid-April (16 weeks). There is still a surplus of natural gas in U.S. storage compared to the 5-year average, but physical supply/demand is much tighter than normal this summer.
I do think the price risk is to the upside for both oil and gas.
Trading Economic this morning:
"US natural gas futures surged 5% to over $2.20/MMBtu, approaching a one-month high amid tightening supply and demand. Forecasts predict intense heat across much of the western, central, and southern US this week, which is expected to drive up cooling demand and boost natural gas use. Although cooler weather is expected in the Northeast and Midwest, which may dampen some demand, an unusual mid-summer storage withdrawal reported by the EIA, the first in August since 2006, reflects higher cooling needs. Additionally, lower production levels at 100.6 Bcf/d have further supported prices."
I spend more time on the U.S. natural market in this podcast. Over the summer, the EIA weekly natural gas storage reports have been extremely bullish with weekly builds (and last week's 6 Bcf draw) being 290 Bcf lower than the 5-year average since mid-April (16 weeks). There is still a surplus of natural gas in U.S. storage compared to the 5-year average, but physical supply/demand is much tighter than normal this summer.
I do think the price risk is to the upside for both oil and gas.
Trading Economic this morning:
"US natural gas futures surged 5% to over $2.20/MMBtu, approaching a one-month high amid tightening supply and demand. Forecasts predict intense heat across much of the western, central, and southern US this week, which is expected to drive up cooling demand and boost natural gas use. Although cooler weather is expected in the Northeast and Midwest, which may dampen some demand, an unusual mid-summer storage withdrawal reported by the EIA, the first in August since 2006, reflects higher cooling needs. Additionally, lower production levels at 100.6 Bcf/d have further supported prices."