EIA - Weekly Petroleum Report - Aug 28

[dan_s]

Keep in mind that EIA's weekly reports are ESTIMATES. They have consistently overstated U.S. crude oil production growth. The EIA's own "914 Report" shows that U.S. crude oil production has declined by 130,000 bpd from December 2023 to May 2024. It declined by 61,000 bpd from April to May, when we normally see production increases in May.

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending August 23, 2024

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million barrels per day during the week ending August 23, 2024, which was 175 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 93.3% of their operable capacity last week.
> Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day.
> Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.0 million barrels per day. < Note below that Distillate inventories (primarily diesel and home heating oil) are way below normal for this time of year.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.6 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 92 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.4 million barrels per day, 6.1% less than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 867 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 220 thousand barrels per day.

Inventories. Focus on how low they are compared to the 5-year average.

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 0.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 425.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year.

> Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels from last week and are about 3% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased, while blending components inventories increased last week.

> Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels last week and are about 10% below the five year average for this time of year.

> Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels from last week and are 12% above the five year average for this time of year.

>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 3.1 million barrels last week. < OECD Petroleum Inventories have declined all summer.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.6 million barrels a day, down by 2.9% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.1 million barrels a day, up by 1.1% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 3.6% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 2.6% compared with the same four-week period last year.
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Despite all the FEAR MONGERING about a global recession and slowing (not declining) oil demand in China, U.S. and OECD Petroleum Inventories continue to decline. India's demand for oil has increased substantially and more than offsets somewhat lower demand growth in China. Again, China's demand is growing, just at a slower pace than in 2022 and 2023.