For China & India's middle class to have a decent std of living it will take a lot more oil

[dan_s]

This is a very interesting interview with someone who really understands the global energy market, Arjun Murti:
https://sprott.com/podcast/ep54

Maybe we need to retire the term energy transition because it's taken on a little bit of a life on its own. The common definition, I think, for most people would be, "We're transitioning out of something presumably oil, gas, natural gas, and coal and into something else, which is overwhelmingly considered to be renewables." Then some folks will say, "Well, it's nuclear and some new technologies and other things." We will all do this by some round number: the year 2050 in this case. There are all aspects that I think are quite challenging. I'll start, and I'll try to keep this short.

I'll phrase it that there's the lucky 1 billion of us folks like me and you, Ed, that live in the U.S. or Canada, Europe, Australia, New Zealand, Japan. They use a disproportionate amount of the world's energy—five times the amount per capita than the other 7 billion people on earth use. Those other 7 billion people, like us in these lucky 1 billion countries, will aspire to better lifestyles and better economies, and ultimately, that means more energy use. We can debate how quickly that can happen. For some places, it's going to happen quickly, and unfortunately, for some places, it will take a long time.

Ramping up their energy use and thinking we're only going to do that with renewables or electric vehicles or any singular solution is where I think this notion of energy transition has gone off the rails. Whether it should be energy evolution or diversification, or frankly just energy growth, hopefully in a lower carbon, less environmentally impactful manner. That's what I think we're headed toward versus this; I will call it an ideologically driven version of transition, which means going out of something into something else in a short time frame.

MY TAKE: There is NO WAY that wind and solar can replace fossil fuels

[dan_s]

Whale oil is the only primary energy source that has EVER gone on decline.
Why?
> Because we were running out of whales to kill. Killing animals for their fat to burn is not a sustainable energy plan.
> As long as human population keeps growing, the world will need all sustainable forms of primary energy.
> Electricity is NOT a primary energy source.
> Demand for energy keeps growing because in order for human families to improve their lifestyles they will need to consume more energy.
> For over half a billion people that means just having a propane cook stove, electric fan, or wash machine so they don't have to wash their clothes down at the river.

Nuclear is just part of the solution. Wind and Solar are unreliable, so they cannot even be a significant percentage of the electricity supply. Natural gas and coal fired power plants will generate the majority of the world's electricity for decades to come.