Oil & Gas Prices - Sept 16

[dan_s]

Trading Economics:
WTI crude oil futures rose above $70 per barrel on Monday morning, extending a 1.4% gain from the previous week, driven by ongoing disruptions to US Gulf of Mexico oil infrastructure and expectations of a US interest rate cut.
> Nearly 20% of Gulf of Mexico oil production remains offline due to Hurricane Francine. < This will impact the next two EIA Petroleum Reports. In addition to oil production, oil imports and exports are impacted by tropical storm and Francine spent several days impacting major ports.
> Also, investors are increasingly betting on a larger 50-bps rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which could boost economic activity and increase oil demand.
> However, concerns persist over slowing demand after Chinese data showed the longest stretch of industrial slowdown since 2021, with weaker-than-expected investment, raising doubts about China's 5% growth target.
> Meanwhile, Libyan oil exports dropped significantly amid stalled UN-led talks over central bank control.

US natural gas futures rose above $2.30/MMBtu ($2.38 at the time of this post), close to a two-month high, driven by forecasts for higher demand and production cuts due to last week's storm.
> Nearly 28% of natural gas production in the US Gulf of Mexico remains offline due to Hurricane Francine.
> Also, demand in the Lower 48 US states is expected to rise from 99.6 bcfd last week to 100.9 bcfd next week.
> Meanwhile, the EIA reported a 40 bcf increase in storage for the week ending September 6, falling short of forecasts, last year's 50 bcf, and the five-year average of 67 bcf.
> Looking ahead, producers are expected to cut output further in late 2024 following a 40% price drop over the past two months.

[dan_s]

My Q3 2024 forecast are based on WTI averaging $75/bbl and HH natural gas averaging $2.00/MMBtu.

Since July 1st WTI as averaged $74.90 and HH natural gas has averaged $2.18, so my Q3 forecasts should be close to actual.

I may need to bring down my oil price and raise my HH natural gas prices for Q4 2024 and for 2025. I already have large cushions in all of my forecasts for Q4 2024 and 2025. All of our Sweet 16 companies product a lot of natural gas and most of them have hedges in place to reduce commodity price risk.