EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - Oct 3

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 3,547 Bcf as of Friday, September 27, 2024, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 55 Bcf from the previous week. < 5 Bcf lower than Celsius Energy's forecast.
Stocks were 127 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 190 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,357 Bcf.
At 3,547 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

The 55 Bcf build is 43 Bcf below the 5-year average for the week.

Based on my forecasts for the remaining 7 weeks of the refill season, which have been very close to actual builds, on November 15th the amount of natural gas in storage will be LOWER than where it was a year ago and just 100 Bcf above the 5-year average. Sometime in December, the amount of natural gas is storage will go BELOW the 5-year average. With just a normal winter in the eastern U.S., natural gas in storage could be over 500 Bcf below the 5-year average by the end of March, 2025.

At the time of this post the NOV24 NYMEX contract for HH natural gas is up $0.05 to $2.95/MMBtu

[dan_s]

Since April 19th (23 weeks), the surplus to the 5-year average has decreased from 695 Bcf to 190 Bcf. The last two weekly declines have been 41 Bcf and 43 Bcf, with both weeks impacted by hurricane related shut-ins.

During the last 7 weeks of the 2023 refill season natural gas in storage increased by 381 Bcf. This year, I am expecting the next 7 weekly builds (ending 11/15/2024) to total only 200 Bcf.