EIA's oil & gas price forecast for 2025

[dan_s]

Per EIA website: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

Crude oil prices. We reduced our forecast for the Brent crude oil spot price through the end of next year. In this month’s outlook, we expect the Brent price will average $78 per barrel (b) in 2025, $7/b less than we expected in last month’s STEO. In our forecast, lower crude oil prices largely reflect a reduction for global oil demand growth in 2025. Although we reduced our crude oil price forecast, crude oil prices have risen in recent days because of escalating conflict in the Middle East, raising the possibility of oil supply disruptions and further crude oil price increases. < My 2025 forecasts are based on WTI crude oil price averaging $75/bbl.

Petroleum product price. Lower crude oil prices reduce our forecast prices for most petroleum products. The largest change from our last forecast is for propane. We forecast the Mont Belvieu propane spot price will average 72 cents per gallon (gal) in 2025, down 15% from our forecast of 84 cents/gal last month. For other products, we now expect the retail diesel price will average about $3.50/gal next year, down by 5% from last month’s forecast. We expect the U.S. average retail gasoline price will average $3.20/gal next year, down 2% from last month.

Natural gas prices. The Henry Hub natural gas spot price rose by 15% to $2.28 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in September. We expect the Henry Hub price to continue rising to around $2.80/MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2024 and to further increase to around $3.10/MMBtu on average in 2025 as liquefied natural gas exports, a component of total natural gas demand, increase with the addition of capacity. < My forecasts are based on $2.75 in Q4 and $3.50 in 2025 if we have a normal winter.