Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending October 11, 2024
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.8 million barrels per day during the week ending October 11, 2024, which was 165 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average.
Refineries operated at 87.7% of their operable capacity last week.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.3 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.8 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.5 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 710 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.2 million barrels per day, 3.4% less than the same four-week period last year. < Hurricane Milton distributed import and exports.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 526 thousand barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 132 thousand barrels per day.
Inventories:
> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 420.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels from last week and are about 4% below the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both decreased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.5 million barrels last week and are about 10% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories increased by 3.4 million barrels from last week and are 13% above the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 7.0 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.8 million barrels a day, up by 2.8% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.0 million barrels a day, up by 5.4% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.0 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 0.2% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 10.4% compared with the same four week period last year.
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This is bullish for oil prices on its surface, but tropical storm activity has impacted imports and exports for several weeks, so hard to read too much into it.
> Refinery maintenance should be almost over, so they should be drawing down crude oil inventories to produce more diesel and home heating oil since distillate inventories are 10% below normal.
> Biggest impact on oil prices will be what Israel does next. Oil supply risk is not coming down anytime soon.
> Tropical storm activity (hopefully) is coming to an end soon.
EIA Petroleum Status Report - Oct 17
EIA Petroleum Status Report - Oct 17
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: EIA Petroleum Status Report - Oct 17
Note from HFI Research:
"I feel like I'm in the twilight zone. In last week's OMF, we discussed how it was one of the more bullish oil storage reports I've seen since 2022. Fast forwarding to today, and the bullish inventory draws continue. Now granted, it's only 2 reports, so more is needed, but there are a few key variables we think readers should be aware of:
> US implied oil demand is better than expected.
> EIA re-benchmarked US oil production higher, but this does not mean US oil production increased.
> Product storage is accelerating lower as refinery maintenance is underway and product demand is better than expected.
To put the figures into perspective, over the last 4 reports, US total liquids including SPR declined by ~27 million bbls. The equivalent 5-year average is a draw of ~15 million bbls. We are drawing at almost double the rate or close to ~1 million b/d.
This is why I think the market is completely disconnected from fundamentals. Seriously, at this point, you have to conjure up crazy stories like peaking Chinese oil demand to convince yourself that oil prices are destined for doom."
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If sure does "feel" like there are "forces at work" to keep oil prices low through the election. Paper Trader can and do control oil prices in the short-run, but supply/demand fundamentals determine oil prices over the long-term.
"I feel like I'm in the twilight zone. In last week's OMF, we discussed how it was one of the more bullish oil storage reports I've seen since 2022. Fast forwarding to today, and the bullish inventory draws continue. Now granted, it's only 2 reports, so more is needed, but there are a few key variables we think readers should be aware of:
> US implied oil demand is better than expected.
> EIA re-benchmarked US oil production higher, but this does not mean US oil production increased.
> Product storage is accelerating lower as refinery maintenance is underway and product demand is better than expected.
To put the figures into perspective, over the last 4 reports, US total liquids including SPR declined by ~27 million bbls. The equivalent 5-year average is a draw of ~15 million bbls. We are drawing at almost double the rate or close to ~1 million b/d.
This is why I think the market is completely disconnected from fundamentals. Seriously, at this point, you have to conjure up crazy stories like peaking Chinese oil demand to convince yourself that oil prices are destined for doom."
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If sure does "feel" like there are "forces at work" to keep oil prices low through the election. Paper Trader can and do control oil prices in the short-run, but supply/demand fundamentals determine oil prices over the long-term.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group