Oil Prices - Oct 25

[dan_s]

Trading Economics:
WTI crude oil futures rose to around $71 per barrel on Friday, on track for a weekly gain, as investors continued to monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East. Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, the persistent exchange of heavy fire left investors uneasy, with close attention on potential supply disruptions in the region and Israel's anticipated response to Iran's missile attack. Meanwhile, business activity in the Eurozone stagnated again this month, remaining in contractionary territory, which raised concerns about demand in Europe. Additionally, demand worries linger from top importer China, as traders await further clarity on Beijing's stimulus policies. Nevertheless, there are positive signs from the US, with refinery processing reaching its highest seasonal level in six years. Fears of a potential shift to a global oil surplus in the coming quarters continued to put pressure on oil prices. < US and OECD petroleum inventories are below normal for this time of year.

OilPrice.com
Crude Oil Options Skyrocket as Markets Still Unable to Read the Middle East
- Open interest held in ICE Brent options surpassed the threshold of 4 million contracts for the first time on record, the equivalent of 4 billion barrels, as investors seek to hedge their geopolitical exposure.

- The widespread expectation that Israel would seek to retaliate vis-à-vis Iran around the time of the US presidential elections, potentially leading to a sudden price spike should international waterways be restricted afterward.

- The fundamentals of the oil markets in 2025 wouldn’t justify an increase in bullish positions in Brent futures, but options, generally perceived as a hedging mechanism for volatile periods, serve that purpose perfectly.

- Brent call options for the front months of December 2024 and January 2025 now fetch the biggest premium to bearish puts since March 2022, the first month after Russia invaded Ukraine.

[dan_s]

Trading Economics:
US natural gas futures rose to $2.5/MMBtu, the highest in a week, driven by forecasts for cooler weather and increased heating demand over the next two weeks. Rising global gas prices are also expected to boost US liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. However, the EIA report showed that utilities added more gas to storage than usual, following 14 straight weeks of smaller additions due to reduced drilling this year. US utilities added 80 billion cubic feet (bcf) of gas to storage last week, above the five-year average of 76 bcf, leaving stocks 4.6% above normal for this time of year.