Strong Market Seasonality Ahead: The historically best three months for major indices—November through January—are about to kick off. But seasonality without context can be risky. When the supposed "worst months" (September and October) actually saw indices rise, it raises the question: if stocks held firm during a typical slump, what might happen in the year's strongest period?
Get Ready for an Action-Packed Ten Days: Strap in! The next ten trading days may be some of the year's most eventful. Things kick off this Friday, November 1, with the PCE and Unemployment reports, metrics the Fed is closely watching for rate guidance. Then, November 5 brings what some call the most consequential US presidential election in history: Trump vs. Harris. The momentum continues with the FOMC meeting on November 6-7 as the Fed navigates a soft landing. Add five of the "Magnificent 7" reporting earnings to this lineup, and there's plenty of potential for market shifts.
Middle East Tensions and Oil Price Volatility: Oil prices dipped over 5% after Israel's anticipated strike on Iran focused on military targets and avoided nuclear or oil infrastructure. While prices have retreated, tensions remain high, and with Iran pledging a response, the risk of further escalation continues to affect the energy market.
Lots of "Noise" the next two weeks
Lots of "Noise" the next two weeks
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group