Permian Resources (PR) Q3 Results - Nov 6

[dan_s]

After the markets closed PR announced strong Q3 results and they increased their production guidance. PR continues to be one of my Top Picks in our Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio.
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3rd Quarter Financial and Operational Highlights

Reported crude oil and total average production of 160.8 MBbls/d and 347.1 MBoe/d during the quarter < Beat my forecast of 332,000 Boepd and 151,060 barrels of oil per day.

Announced cash capital expenditures of $520 million, cash provided by operating activities of $954 million and adjusted free cash flow of $303 million. < Beat my operating cash flow forecast of $787.7 million.

Continue to drive operational efficiencies, resulting in reduced cycle times and lower well costs

Reduced D&C costs to ~$800 per lateral foot, which represents a 16% decrease from 2023

Announced quarterly base dividend of $0.15 per share, a 150% increase compared to the prior quarter

Represents initial base dividend under the Company's updated return of capital strategy

Maintained strong balance sheet with leverage of ~1x and ~$2.8 billion of total liquidity

Ended quarter with undrawn revolver and $272 million of cash

Received upgraded credit ratings by Moody’s, S&P and Fitch

Targeting investment grade credit ratings in 2025

Closed previously announced Barilla Draw transaction, adding ~29,500 net acres and ~9,900 net royalty acres directly offset existing operations

Increased mid-point of full year oil and total production guidance by over 4% to 158.5 MBbls/d and 341.0 MBoe/d

Third consecutive increase of guidance primarily driven by strong performance of base business

Management Commentary

"Our team continues to do a tremendous job executing in the field and has improved upon the operational efficiencies gained earlier in the year. Most importantly, reduced cycle times have driven a significant reduction in well costs," said Will Hickey, Co-CEO of Permian Resources. "We are now drilling and completing wells for approximately $1 million cheaper than 2023. This improvement is driven by our operations team’s relentless pursuit of efficiencies and cost savings." < Reduced D&C well costs have significantly improved well-level economics. What this means is the new wells payout faster and at $70/bbl WTI the well's are generating returns that are better than last year's wells as if WTI was $80/bbl.

"We are proud to increase full year production guidance for the third consecutive quarter, while maintaining our original capital budget. We have now increased oil guidance 11 MBbls/d above our initial outlook, with approximately 8 MBbls/d of this increase driven by our existing business and the remainder from accretive acquisitions," said James Walter, Co-CEO of Permian Resources. "We are also excited for the first quarter under our significantly enhanced base dividend. The revised return of capital policy will provide better visibility for our shareholders to current and future dividends, while positioning Permian Resources to continue delivering strong dividend growth and leading total shareholder returns."

Operational and Financial Results

Permian Resources continued the efficient development of its core Delaware Basin acreage position in the third quarter, delivering higher operational efficiencies and continued strong well results. During the quarter, average daily crude oil production was 160,801 Bbls/d, a 5% increase compared to the prior quarter. Reported natural gas and NGL volumes were 603,217 Mcf/d and 85,754 Bbls/d, respectively. Third quarter total production was 347,091 Boe/d.

Total cash capital expenditures ("capex") for the third quarter were $520 million. The Company continues to drive operational efficiencies, further reducing well costs on a per lateral foot basis. For the third quarter, drilling and completion costs per lateral foot were approximately $800, or a $150 per lateral foot reduction from 2023.

"During the quarter, we reduced our drilling cycle times by 16% compared to last year, while also increasing our completion crew pump hours per day by 19%," said Will Hickey, Co-CEO. "As a result, these operational efficiencies have lowered drilling and completion costs, and we will continue to focus on further cost reductions as we head into next year."

Realized prices for the quarter were $74.31 per barrel of oil, $(0.20) per Mcf of natural gas and $22.35 per barrel of NGL. Regional natural gas prices during the quarter continued to be negatively impacted by pipeline capacity constraints, which are expected to be alleviated through additional capacity in the near-term. The Company has continued to make progress towards its goal of pricing more natural gas out of basin, increasing its non-Waha sales to approximately 30% in 2024 compared to 20% in 2023.

Third quarter total controllable cash costs (LOE, GP&T and cash G&A) were $7.95 per Boe. LOE was $5.43 per Boe, GP&T was $1.57 per Boe and cash G&A was $0.95 per Boe.

For the third quarter, Permian Resources generated net cash provided by operating activities of $954 million, adjusted operating cash flow1 of $823 million and adjusted free cash flow1 of $303 million. Adjusted basic weighted average shares1 outstanding were 794.4 million for the three months ended September 30, 2024.

Permian Resources continues to maintain a strong financial position and low leverage profile upon closing the previously announced Barilla Draw bolt-on acquisition during the quarter. At September 30, 2024, the Company had $272 million in cash on hand and no amounts drawn under its revolving credit facility. Total liquidity was approximately $2.8 billion. Net debt-to-LQA EBITDAX at September 30, 2024 was approximately 1x. < STRONG Balance Sheet.

2024 Operational Plan and Target Update

Permian Resources increased its 2024 oil production target by 6.5 MBbls/d to 158.5 MBbls/d and raised its total production target by 16.0 MBoe/d to 341.0 MBoe/d, based on the mid-point of guidance. The majority of the increase in full year production guidance is driven by continued strong well performance and operational efficiencies, with the balance coming from the recently closed Barilla Draw acquisition. The Company is also adjusting the expected number of turn-in-lines ("TILs") for 2024 to approximately 270 gross wells, as a result of faster cycle times. There are no other changes to the Company’s guidance ranges.

"This represents our third consecutive increase to full year production targets, while maintaining our original capital expenditure guidance," said James Walter, Co-CEO. "Most importantly, the vast majority of our increase year-to-date has been driven by outperformance of our base business, highlighting the quality of our asset base."

(For a detailed table summarizing Permian Resources’ revised 2024 operational and financial guidance, please see the Appendix of this press release.)

Shareholder Returns

Permian Resources announced today that its Board of Directors (the "Board") declared a quarterly base dividend of $0.15 per share of Class A common stock, or $0.60 per share on an annualized basis. This represents the first quarterly base dividend under the Company’s new return of capital policy, which represents a 150% increase compared to its prior base dividend and provides a leading base dividend yield amongst U.S. independent E&Ps. The base dividend is payable on November 22, 2024 to shareholders of record as of November 14, 2024. The Company’s base dividend represents an annualized yield of 4.4%, as of November 4, 2024.

Recent Acquisitions

On September 17, 2024, Permian Resources closed the previously announced Barilla Draw bolt-on acquisition of approximately 29,500 net acres, 9,900 net royalty acres and substantial midstream infrastructure located in the core of the Delaware Basin. The Company assumed operations on November 1, 2024 and has begun development on the acquired properties. During the third quarter, the Barilla Draw assets contributed approximately 2 MBoe/d, or 1 MBbls/d of oil.

Additionally, Permian Resources continues to be successful executing upon its ground game, consisting of smaller grassroots acquisitions and leasehold transactions. During the third quarter, the Company added approximately 460 net acres through over 100 grassroots leasing and working interest acquisitions. There were no incremental production volumes associated with these acquisitions during the quarter.