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The forecast is now for a colder than normal December in eastern half of the U.S.
Will it continue in January? I have no idea.
If Joe's forecast is correct, we should see big NGas draws from storage in December. NGas in storage should go below where it was a year ago by the end of December.
Bullish start to winter for NGas - Nov 23
Bullish start to winter for NGas - Nov 23
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Bullish start to winter for NGas - Nov 23
From the Energy Investor Newsletter: IEA Warns of “Fragile” Balance In Global Gas Market
Well, it looks like the IEA is finally catching up to what the rest of us have known for years — that limited growth of LNG supply can lead to some serious energy issues.
Recently, the IEA reported that the global gas balance remains precarious due to limited liquefied natural gas (LNG) production growth, despite record-high demand in 2024, primarily driven by Asia. Geopolitical instability, particularly concerning Russia's gas transit through Ukraine, adds significant volatility to already tight global gas markets. Slow LNG production growth stems from project delays and supply issues from various countries.
The projected halt of Russian gas transit through Ukraine in 2025 will further strain European gas supplies, intensifying competition for LNG with Asian buyers. On November 22 the natural gas price in Europe (the Dutch TTF) was $14.90/MMBtu.
What’s even more disconcerting is that Europe could be facing a colder winter than last year, particularly in the UK, France, Germany, and Scandinavia. As you know, this would be particularly troublesome for countries like Germany, which have aggressively developed intermittent renewable sources like wind and solar at the expense of other power sources such as nuclear and coal.
Of course, the fastest-growing LNG markets will continue to be in Asia, which accounts for the majority of year-over-year growth. On November 22 the natural gas price in Asia (the Japan/Korea Marker) was $15.08/MMBtu
Let’s be clear, THIS is why we’re so bullish on our U.S. LNG plays like Cheniere Energy Partners, which will play a key role in supplying areas like Europe with future LNG supply.
Well, it looks like the IEA is finally catching up to what the rest of us have known for years — that limited growth of LNG supply can lead to some serious energy issues.
Recently, the IEA reported that the global gas balance remains precarious due to limited liquefied natural gas (LNG) production growth, despite record-high demand in 2024, primarily driven by Asia. Geopolitical instability, particularly concerning Russia's gas transit through Ukraine, adds significant volatility to already tight global gas markets. Slow LNG production growth stems from project delays and supply issues from various countries.
The projected halt of Russian gas transit through Ukraine in 2025 will further strain European gas supplies, intensifying competition for LNG with Asian buyers. On November 22 the natural gas price in Europe (the Dutch TTF) was $14.90/MMBtu.
What’s even more disconcerting is that Europe could be facing a colder winter than last year, particularly in the UK, France, Germany, and Scandinavia. As you know, this would be particularly troublesome for countries like Germany, which have aggressively developed intermittent renewable sources like wind and solar at the expense of other power sources such as nuclear and coal.
Of course, the fastest-growing LNG markets will continue to be in Asia, which accounts for the majority of year-over-year growth. On November 22 the natural gas price in Asia (the Japan/Korea Marker) was $15.08/MMBtu
Let’s be clear, THIS is why we’re so bullish on our U.S. LNG plays like Cheniere Energy Partners, which will play a key role in supplying areas like Europe with future LNG supply.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group