OPEC+ Update - Dec 6

[dan_s]

It is official: OPEC+ countries agreed to postpone the start of oil production increases by three months until April 2025, simultaneously extending the full unwinding of output cuts by a year until end-2026 as the oil group confronts rising non-OPEC production.

In a widely anticipated move, OPEC+ postponed its planned supply increases by another quarter, now pledging to start unwinding output cuts from April 2025 onwards. This, however, was not enough to convince oil markets of a bullish narrative lurking out there, not even the postponement of the UAE’s baseline quota increase could stop ICE Brent from dipping back below $72 per barrel.

Read the comments from HFI that we sent out today.

It is likely that Trump will enforce sanctions against Iran and Venezuela in late January after he gets an agreement from Saudi Arabia that they will fill any supply gap. Regardless, the global oil market will remain tight in 2025.