Natural Gas Prices SURGE after noon on Dec 17

[dan_s]

Trading Economics:
US natural gas futures surged over 3% to $3.36 per MMBtu on Tuesday afternoon, driven by forecasts of stronger demand next week and rising flows to liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants.
> Analysts pointed out that utilities likely withdrew more gas from storage than usual last week to meet heating needs during a second consecutive week of cold weather. However, gas stockpiles remain about 4% above the seasonal average.
> Despite this, Tuesday's price increase occurred even as production continued to rise and forecasts indicated mild weather and low heating demand heading into the start of the new year.
> Looking ahead, financial firm LSEG reported that gas output in the Lower 48 US states averaged 103.1 billion cubic feet per day in December, up from 101.5 bcfd in November.
> Additionally, LNG exports have increased, with an average of 14.0 bcfd in December, up from 13.6 bcfd in November, signaling strong export activity in the natural gas market.

I heard a report today that Team Trump is going to push for more LNG exports to lower the U.S. trade deficit. Apparently, an improving trade deficit will give the Fed more reason to lower interest rates.

During December the weather forecasts are always the primary driver of natural gas prices. During Q1 2025, I expect LNG exports to be 4 to 5 Bcf higher than they were in Q1 2024 (~400 Bcf demand in Q1). If we just have a normal winter, the natural gas surplus should be wiped out by end of March.